Football · Spain Tercera Group 12 · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Panaderia Pulido vs CF San Bartolome

Team pages: Panaderia Pulido · CF San Bartolome

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Panaderia Pulido2.38

CF San Bartolome1.08

1X2

65% 20% 15%

Panaderia Pulido Draw CF San Bartolome

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Panaderia Pulido 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWDWW

CF San Bartolome 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Panaderia Pulido 3–3–0 CF San Bartolome (6 last)

Panaderia Pulido0-0CF San Bartolome
CF San Bartolome0-2Panaderia Pulido
CF San Bartolome1-1Panaderia Pulido
Panaderia Pulido1-1CF San Bartolome
Panaderia Pulido3-1CF San Bartolome
CF San Bartolome0-2Panaderia Pulido

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Panaderia Pulido 1576 · CF San Bartolome 1464

	Panaderia Pulido	Draw	CF San Bartolome
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	65%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panaderia Pulido (rating 1576 vs 1464).
H2H favours Panaderia Pulido: 3-3-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Panaderia Pulido	CF San Bartolome
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.9	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/29/14%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +39’	1.36	4.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Panaderia Pulido 3–3–0 CF San Bartolome

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 12	Panaderia Pulido	0-0	CF San Bartolome
27/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 12	CF San Bartolome	0-2	Panaderia Pulido
05/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 12	CF San Bartolome	1-1	Panaderia Pulido
23/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 12	Panaderia Pulido	1-1 HT 0-0	CF San Bartolome
02/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 12	Panaderia Pulido	3-1 HT 0-1	CF San Bartolome
14/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 12	CF San Bartolome	0-2	Panaderia Pulido

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 12

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	10	8	1	1	25	7	25
2	Panaderia Pulido	10	7	2	1	31	14	23
3	CD Arcangel San Miguel	10	7	1	2	21	9	22
4	Real Union de Tenerife	10	6	2	2	15	9	20
5	Las Palmas C	10	4	4	2	20	12	16
6	Union Sur Yaiza	10	5	1	4	14	11	16
7	CD Marino	10	4	3	3	18	12	15
8	Tenerife C	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
9	Llanos Aridane	9	4	1	4	12	9	13
10	Estrella CF	10	4	1	5	12	15	13
11	Mensajero	10	3	4	3	12	17	13
12	Lanzarote	10	2	6	2	10	12	12
13	CF San Bartolome	10	2	4	4	13	16	10
14	Villa Sta Brigida	10	2	4	4	9	14	10
15	UD Anaza	10	2	3	5	10	18	9
16	SD Villaverde Norte	10	1	2	7	7	24	5
17	UD Playas de Sotavento	10	0	4	6	7	25	4
18	CD Laguna	10	0	3	7	10	24	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Panaderia Pulido	CF San Bartolome
Union Sur Yaiza	2-1 W	1-0 W
SD Villaverde Norte	5-0 W	0-2 L
UD Playas de Sotavento	1-1 D	1-1 D
Mensajero	5-0 W	2-2 D
CD Arcangel San Miguel	4-1 W	0-1 L
UD Anaza	5-2 W	1-2 L
Tenerife C	3-3 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Panaderia Pulido (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Panaderia Pulido

WDLWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/10	SD Villaverde Norte Spain Tercera Group 12	2-0	5-0	8	3	W
24/10	UD Playas de Sotavento Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/10	Mensajero Spain Tercera Group 12	1-0	5-0	2	2	W
17/10	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	2-0	4-1	2	4	W
10/10	CD Laguna Spain Tercera Group 12	–	4-3	–	–	W
03/10	UD Anaza Spain Tercera Group 12	3-2	5-2	9	8	W
26/09	Real Union de Tenerife Spain Tercera Group 12	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	2-2	3-3	8	7	D
13/09	CD Marino Spain Tercera Group 12	1-1	2-1	3	8	W

CF San Bartolome

WWDDDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	SD Villaverde Norte Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/10	CD Arcangel San Miguel Spain Tercera Group 12	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/10	UD Anaza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-2	–	–	L
21/10	UD Playas de Sotavento Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Tenerife C Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-4	–	–	L
11/10	Mensajero Spain Tercera Group 12	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Villa Sta Brigida Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Lanzarote Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Estrella CF Spain Tercera Group 12	–	4-2	–	–	W
11/09	Union Sur Yaiza Spain Tercera Group 12	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Panaderia Pulido vs CF San Bartolome?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Panaderia Pulido win (65%). Probabilities: Panaderia Pulido 65%, draw 20%, CF San Bartolome 15%.

How many goals are expected in Panaderia Pulido vs CF San Bartolome?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Panaderia Pulido 2.38 · CF San Bartolome 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Panaderia Pulido vs CF San Bartolome?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.