Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: CD Manchego CR vs CD Villa

Team pages: CD Manchego CR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

CD Manchego CR2.1

CD Villa0.73

1X2

69% 20% 11%

CD Manchego CR Draw CD Villa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Manchego CR 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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CD Villa 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Manchego CR 1574 · CD Villa 1518

	CD Manchego CR	Draw	CD Villa
Our model	68%	21%	11%
Market	69%	19%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Manchego CR (rating 1574 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Manchego CR	CD Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +1’	1.28	4.75	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	10	8	0	2	18	8	24
2	Toledo	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	CD Villa	10	6	0	4	15	13	18
5	Villarrobledo	10	4	5	1	11	5	17
6	Illescas	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	CD Tarancon	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
8	AD San Clemente	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
9	CD Torrijos	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	CD Noblejas	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
11	Villarrubia CF	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Almansa	10	3	3	4	13	11	12
13	Marchamalo	10	3	3	4	16	18	12
14	La Solana	10	4	0	6	9	11	12
15	Socuéllamos	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
16	Huracan Balazote	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	10	1	3	6	12	20	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Manchego CR	CD Villa
Marchamalo	3-2 W	0-2 L
Huracan Balazote	1-0 W	5-1 W
CD Villacanas	2-0 W	1-4 L
La Solana	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Manchego CR (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Manchego CR

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
31/10	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	2-1	4-1	5	7	W
25/10	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/10	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
11/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-3	–	–	L
04/10	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
27/09	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	3-2	3	4	W
20/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
12/09	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

CD Villa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	–	5-1	–	–	W
31/10	CD Villacanas Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-4	–	–	L
25/10	La Solana Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/10	CD Noblejas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
11/10	Villarrubia CF Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
27/09	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Marchamalo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-2	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Manchego CR vs CD Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Manchego CR win (69%). Probabilities: CD Manchego CR 69%, draw 20%, CD Villa 11%.

How many goals are expected in CD Manchego CR vs CD Villa?

The model expects 2.83 goals (CD Manchego CR 2.1 · CD Villa 0.73), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Manchego CR vs CD Villa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.