Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Pobla Mafumet vs UE San Juan Montcada

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Pobla Mafumet1.47

UE San Juan Montcada1.39

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Pobla Mafumet Draw UE San Juan Montcada

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pobla Mafumet 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLWLL

UE San Juan Montcada 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Pobla Mafumet 0–1 UE San Juan Montcada (1 last)

UE San Juan Montcada2-1Pobla Mafumet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pobla Mafumet 1483 · UE San Juan Montcada 1483

	Pobla Mafumet	Draw	UE San Juan Montcada
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 14.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pobla Mafumet	UE San Juan Montcada
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/14/71%	38/13/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.3	7.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +4’	2.38	3.25	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pobla Mafumet 0–0–1 UE San Juan Montcada

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Spain Regional League	UE San Juan Montcada	2-1 HT 0-1	Pobla Mafumet

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vilanova Geltru	10	5	4	1	14	11	19
2	CE Europa B	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
3	CF Montanesa	10	5	2	3	13	7	17
4	Badalona	10	5	2	3	17	11	17
5	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	10	4	4	2	10	9	16
6	CE L'Hospitalet	10	3	6	1	13	11	15
7	Atletic Lleida	10	4	3	3	12	13	15
8	UE Tona	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
9	FE Grama	10	3	4	3	12	6	13
10	Pobla Mafumet	10	4	1	5	13	13	13
11	UE San Juan Montcada	10	4	1	5	14	18	13
12	UE Vilassar de Mar	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
13	FC Martinenc	10	3	3	4	19	20	12
14	Peralada	10	2	5	3	12	12	11
15	CFJ Mollerussa	10	3	2	5	10	12	11
16	UE Cornella	10	2	5	3	14	13	11
17	FC L'Escala	10	2	3	5	11	14	9
18	CP San Cristobal	10	2	2	6	7	23	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pobla Mafumet	UE San Juan Montcada
Peralada	1-2 L	3-1 W
CFJ Mollerussa	2-1 W	1-2 L
CE L'Hospitalet	1-2 L	2-2 D
UE Cornella	1-0 W	3-1 W
Atletic Lleida	1-1 D	0-3 L
Vilanova Geltru	2-3 L	0-2 L
UE Tona	3-1 W	2-1 W
CP San Cristobal	2-1 W	1-2 L
UE Vilassar de Mar	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Pobla Mafumet (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pobla Mafumet

LWWLDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
01/11	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	1-2	0	8	L
25/10	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
18/10	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	1-2	5	8	L
11/10	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
04/10	Atletic Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Vilanova Geltru Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	2-3	5	9	L
19/09	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/09	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
05/09	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-1	–	–	L

UE San Juan Montcada

LWLWLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	3-1	8	8	W
01/11	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/10	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-2	–	–	D
21/10	Vilanova Geltru Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
18/10	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
10/10	Atletic Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	0-3	2	11	L
26/09	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	2-1	2-1	4	11	W
20/09	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	1-2	3	9	L
12/09	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	2-1	9	7	W
06/09	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pobla Mafumet vs UE San Juan Montcada?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pobla Mafumet win (38%). Probabilities: Pobla Mafumet 38%, draw 27%, UE San Juan Montcada 35%.

How many goals are expected in Pobla Mafumet vs UE San Juan Montcada?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Pobla Mafumet 1.47 · UE San Juan Montcada 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pobla Mafumet vs UE San Juan Montcada?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.