Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 15/11, 12:30

Prediction: Churriana de la Vega CF vs Motril

Team pages: Churriana de la Vega CF · Motril

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Churriana de la Vega CF1.01

Motril1.25

1X2

29% 29% 41%

Churriana de la Vega CF Draw Motril

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Churriana de la Vega CF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDDDW

Motril 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWLDD

Head-to-head

Churriana de la Vega CF 0–2–2 Motril (4 last)

Motril0-0Churriana de la Vega CF
Churriana de la Vega CF1-1Motril
Motril4-0Churriana de la Vega CF
Churriana de la Vega CF2-3Motril

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Churriana de la Vega CF 1510 · Motril 1526

	Churriana de la Vega CF	Draw	Motril
Our model	29%	31%	40%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motril: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Churriana de la Vega CF	Motril
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	17/83/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	3.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +48’	3.00	3.20	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Churriana de la Vega CF 0–2–2 Motril

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Tercera - Play-Offs	Motril	0-0 HT 0-0	Churriana de la Vega CF
17/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	Churriana de la Vega CF	1-1 HT 0-1	Motril
11/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	Motril	4-0 HT 1-0	Churriana de la Vega CF
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Churriana de la Vega CF	2-3	Motril

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melilla	10	7	2	1	17	7	23
2	Arenas	10	6	4	0	18	8	22
3	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	10	6	2	2	20	11	20
4	Almeria B	10	5	4	1	14	6	19
5	Atletico Malagueno	10	5	3	2	20	11	18
6	Motril	10	4	5	1	14	10	17
7	UD San Pedro	10	5	0	5	12	14	15
8	Churriana de la Vega CF	10	4	3	3	15	10	15
9	FC Marbelli	10	4	3	3	8	8	15
10	Atletico Porcuna CF	10	3	4	3	12	18	13
11	CD Huetor Vega	10	3	4	3	13	15	13
12	Recreativo Granada	10	3	4	3	10	7	13
13	UD Torre del Mar	10	3	3	4	7	8	12
14	Alhaurino	10	2	3	5	10	14	9
15	Atletico Marbella	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
16	Atletico Mancha Real	10	1	4	5	8	16	7
17	Cantoria 2017	10	0	4	6	5	16	4
18	CD Malaga Juniors FC	10	0	0	10	6	24	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Churriana de la Vega CF	Motril
Almeria B	0-0 D	0-0 D
Recreativo Granada	0-0 D	1-1 D
Atletico Malagueno	1-1 D	2-4 L
Cantoria 2017	3-0 W	2-0 W
Atletico Porcuna CF	3-2 W	1-1 D
UD San Pedro	1-3 L	3-2 W
Alhaurino	1-2 L	2-0 W
CD Malaga Juniors FC	4-1 W	2-1 W
UD Torre del Mar	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Churriana de la Vega CF (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Churriana de la Vega CF

LWLLWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Atletico Marbella Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
01/11	Almeria B Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
25/10	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	Atletico Malagueno Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
11/10	Cantoria 2017 Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
04/10	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	3-2	–	–	W
27/09	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-2	3	10	L
13/09	CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	4-1	3	5	W
06/09	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Motril

DDWWWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Almeria B Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
01/11	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/10	Atletico Malagueno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-4	–	–	L
18/10	Cantoria 2017 Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
11/10	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	1-1	8	8	D
04/10	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	3-2	–	–	W
27/09	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	2-0	5	7	W
20/09	CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-1	11	8	W
13/09	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
05/09	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Churriana de la Vega CF vs Motril?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motril win (41%). Probabilities: Churriana de la Vega CF 29%, draw 29%, Motril 41%.

How many goals are expected in Churriana de la Vega CF vs Motril?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Churriana de la Vega CF 1.01 · Motril 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Churriana de la Vega CF vs Motril?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.