Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Almeria B vs Melilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Almeria B1.25

Melilla1.03

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Almeria B Draw Melilla

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Almeria B 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWDDD

Melilla 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWDD

Head-to-head

Almeria B 1–1–4 Melilla (6 last)

Melilla3-0Almeria B
Almeria B1-1Melilla
Melilla0-3Almeria B
Almeria B1-4Melilla
Melilla4-0Almeria B
Melilla1-0Almeria B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almeria B 1539 · Melilla 1562

	Almeria B	Draw	Melilla
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Melilla: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almeria B	Melilla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/63/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	3 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +22’	2.15	3.30	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almeria B 1–1–4 Melilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	Melilla	3-0 HT 2-0	Almeria B
14/12/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	Almeria B	1-1 HT 1-1	Melilla
17/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Melilla	0-3 HT 0-1	Almeria B
24/03/19 Spain Segunda B Group 4	Almeria B	1-4 HT 0-1	Melilla
04/11/18 Spain Segunda B Group 4	Melilla	4-0 HT 3-0	Almeria B
27/03/16 Spain Segunda B Group 4	Melilla	1-0	Almeria B

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melilla	10	7	2	1	17	7	23
2	Arenas	10	6	4	0	18	8	22
3	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	10	6	2	2	20	11	20
4	Almeria B	10	5	4	1	14	6	19
5	Atletico Malagueno	10	5	3	2	20	11	18
6	Motril	10	4	5	1	14	10	17
7	UD San Pedro	10	5	0	5	12	14	15
8	Churriana de la Vega CF	10	4	3	3	15	10	15
9	FC Marbelli	10	4	3	3	8	8	15
10	Atletico Porcuna CF	10	3	4	3	12	18	13
11	CD Huetor Vega	10	3	4	3	13	15	13
12	Recreativo Granada	10	3	4	3	10	7	13
13	UD Torre del Mar	10	3	3	4	7	8	12
14	Alhaurino	10	2	3	5	10	14	9
15	Atletico Marbella	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
16	Atletico Mancha Real	10	1	4	5	8	16	7
17	Cantoria 2017	10	0	4	6	5	16	4
18	CD Malaga Juniors FC	10	0	0	10	6	24	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almeria B	Melilla
Recreativo Granada	1-0 W	0-0 D
Atletico Malagueno	2-1 W	2-2 D
Cantoria 2017	1-1 D	2-0 W
Atletico Porcuna CF	4-0 W	0-2 L
UD San Pedro	0-1 L	2-0 W
Alhaurino	2-0 W	2-1 W
CD Malaga Juniors FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Almeria B (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almeria B

WWLWDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/11	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
25/10	Atletico Marbella Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
18/10	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
11/10	Atletico Malagueno Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
04/10	Cantoria 2017 Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	3-0	4-0	3	7	W
20/09	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/09	CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	2-1	0	3	W

Melilla

WWWWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/10	Atletico Malagueno Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
24/10	Cantoria 2017 Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/10	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/10	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	2-1	2-1	10	3	W
27/09	CD Malaga Juniors FC Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-0	–	–	W
20/09	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	–	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almeria B vs Melilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almeria B win (41%). Probabilities: Almeria B 41%, draw 29%, Melilla 30%.

How many goals are expected in Almeria B vs Melilla?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Almeria B 1.25 · Melilla 1.03), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almeria B vs Melilla?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.