Football · Peru Liga 1 · 15/08, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua vs Sport Boys

Team pages: Deportivo Moquegua · Sport Boys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.58Total

Deportivo Moquegua0.83

Sport Boys0.75

1X2

36% 33% 31%

Deportivo Moquegua Draw Sport Boys

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Moquegua 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDDDDL

Sport Boys 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Moquegua 0–1–0 Sport Boys (1 last)

Sport Boys0-0Deportivo Moquegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Moquegua 1479 · Sport Boys 1554

	Deportivo Moquegua	Draw	Sport Boys
Our model	33%	38%	29%
Market	38%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 1.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Boys (rating 1479 vs 1554).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Moquegua	Sport Boys
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +5’	2.45	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moquegua 0–1–0 Sport Boys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Moquegua

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	21	14	6	1	38	13	48
2	CD Los Chankas	21	12	5	4	31	27	41
3	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
4	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
5	FBC Melgar	20	10	5	5	34	22	35
6	Cusco FC	21	10	3	8	31	31	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	20	9	5	6	24	20	32
8	Alianza Atletico	21	7	6	8	26	26	27
9	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
10	Sporting Cristal	21	7	5	9	33	33	26
11	Comerciantes Unidos	21	6	8	7	27	28	26
12	Sport Huancayo	21	6	5	10	27	34	23
13	AD Tarma	21	5	6	10	24	27	21
14	Deportivo Moquegua	20	5	6	9	19	26	21
15	Juan Pablo II College	21	5	6	10	26	44	21
16	Atletico Grau	21	5	5	11	15	22	20
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	21	4	8	9	24	34	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Moquegua	Sport Boys
UTC Cajamarca	0-0 D	0-0 D
Comerciantes Unidos	2-2 D	1-0 W
Atletico Grau	0-1 L	1-0 W
CD Los Chankas	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Boys (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Moquegua

LDLWDDDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
29/06	FBC Melgar Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
21/06	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
29/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Sport Boys

WDWDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
01/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
25/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
19/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
11/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/06	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	3-0	5	9	W
13/06	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
31/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
23/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moquegua vs Sport Boys?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Moquegua win (36%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moquegua 36%, draw 33%, Sport Boys 31%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moquegua vs Sport Boys?

The model expects 1.58 goals (Deportivo Moquegua 0.83 · Sport Boys 0.75), with a 63% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Sport Boys?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.