Football · Peru Liga 1 · 15/08, 22:00

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca

Team pages: Alianza Lima · UTC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Alianza Lima2.35

UTC Cajamarca0.63

1X2

75% 17% 8%

Alianza Lima Draw UTC Cajamarca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLWDWD

UTC Cajamarca 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 5–1–0 UTC Cajamarca (6 last)

UTC Cajamarca0-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima3-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca0-0Alianza Lima
UTC Cajamarca0-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima1-0UTC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima1-0UTC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1522 · UTC Cajamarca 1455

	Alianza Lima	Draw	UTC Cajamarca
Our model	75%	17%	7%
Market	76%	17%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1522 vs 1455).
H2H favours Alianza Lima: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	UTC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +3’	1.22	5.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 5–1–0 UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
23/11/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-0 HT 2-0	UTC Cajamarca
12/07/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
18/10/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
04/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
06/08/23 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	21	14	6	1	38	13	48
2	CD Los Chankas	21	12	5	4	31	27	41
3	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
4	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
5	FBC Melgar	20	10	5	5	34	22	35
6	Cusco FC	21	10	3	8	31	31	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	20	9	5	6	24	20	32
8	Alianza Atletico	21	7	6	8	26	26	27
9	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
10	Sporting Cristal	21	7	5	9	33	33	26
11	Comerciantes Unidos	21	6	8	7	27	28	26
12	Sport Huancayo	21	6	5	10	27	34	23
13	AD Tarma	21	5	6	10	24	27	21
14	Deportivo Moquegua	20	5	6	9	19	26	21
15	Juan Pablo II College	21	5	6	10	26	44	21
16	Atletico Grau	21	5	5	11	15	22	20
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	21	4	8	9	24	34	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	UTC Cajamarca
Sport Boys	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Cajamarca	1-1 D	3-1 W
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alianza Lima

WDDLLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
12/07	Deportivo Cali America Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
28/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
21/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
14/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
24/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W

UTC Cajamarca

LDDDWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	5	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
12/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/06	FC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-1	12	6	W
15/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-2	2	9	D
31/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
23/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (75%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 75%, draw 17%, UTC Cajamarca 8%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Alianza Lima 2.35 · UTC Cajamarca 0.63), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.