Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 15/11, 11:30

Prediction: Siello FC vs Real Aranjuez

Team pages: Siello FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Siello FC1.45

Real Aranjuez1.78

1X2

30% 27% 44%

Siello FC Draw Real Aranjuez

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Siello FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Real Aranjuez 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siello FC 1435 · Real Aranjuez 1478

	Siello FC	Draw	Real Aranjuez
Our model	31%	25%	44%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Aranjuez (rating 1435 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siello FC	Real Aranjuez
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.8	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	11/56/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.8	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:33 +41’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siello FC	Real Aranjuez
Union Adarve	0-4 L	2-1 W
Torrejon	1-1 D	1-4 L
Fuenlabrada	0-1 L	0-0 D
Mexico FC	3-2 W	2-2 D
CD Colonia Moscardo	1-5 L	1-1 D
UD San Sebastián Reyes B	0-2 L	5-3 W
Trival Valderas	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Aranjuez (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Siello FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
01/11	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	1-4	3	8	L
25/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-6	3	2	L
18/10	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
11/10	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
04/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
27/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	3-2	1	3	W
20/09	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-5	2	6	L
13/09	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	0-2	10	5	L
06/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-3	8	8	L

Real Aranjuez

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	2-1	3	10	W
01/11	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-4	3	7	L
24/10	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
17/10	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	2-2	1	5	D
10/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
04/10	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	5-3	3	4	W
26/09	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
20/09	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
12/09	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	–	2-5	11	6	L
06/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siello FC vs Real Aranjuez?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Aranjuez win (44%). Probabilities: Siello FC 30%, draw 27%, Real Aranjuez 44%.

How many goals are expected in Siello FC vs Real Aranjuez?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Siello FC 1.45 · Real Aranjuez 1.78), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Siello FC vs Real Aranjuez?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.