Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Fuenlabrada vs AD Cala Pozuelo

Team pages: Fuenlabrada

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Fuenlabrada1.57

AD Cala Pozuelo0.86

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Fuenlabrada Draw AD Cala Pozuelo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fuenlabrada 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWDLDWL

AD Cala Pozuelo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuenlabrada 1496 · AD Cala Pozuelo 1525

	Fuenlabrada	Draw	AD Cala Pozuelo
Our model	53%	28%	19%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuenlabrada	AD Cala Pozuelo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.2	6.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +21’	1.67	3.50	4.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuenlabrada	AD Cala Pozuelo
Rayo Vallecano B	0-2 L	3-2 W
Las Rozas	3-0 W	1-3 L
CD Mostoles URJC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Mexico FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AD Cala Pozuelo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fuenlabrada

DLWDWDLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-2	6	10	L
01/11	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
24/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
17/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
11/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
04/10	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
27/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	2-0	3-1	1	7	W
13/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-2	1-3	7	10	L
05/09	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

AD Cala Pozuelo

LWLWWWDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Mexico FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
31/10	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
24/10	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
10/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
04/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	3-1	3-1	2	3	W
26/09	Leganes B Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	11	8	W
20/09	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	3-2	6	10	W
05/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	0-3	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuenlabrada vs AD Cala Pozuelo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fuenlabrada win (53%). Probabilities: Fuenlabrada 53%, draw 27%, AD Cala Pozuelo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Fuenlabrada vs AD Cala Pozuelo?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Fuenlabrada 1.57 · AD Cala Pozuelo 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuenlabrada vs AD Cala Pozuelo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.