Football · Spain Tercera Group 7 · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Mexico FC vs Leganes B

Team pages: Mexico FC · Leganes B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Mexico FC1.28

Leganes B1.56

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Mexico FC Draw Leganes B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mexico FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Leganes B 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mexico FC 2–1–3 Leganes B (6 last)

Leganes B1-2Mexico FC
Mexico FC0-1Leganes B
Mexico FC1-2Leganes B
Leganes B4-0Mexico FC
Mexico FC1-1Leganes B
Leganes B1-2Mexico FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mexico FC 1455 · Leganes B 1520

	Mexico FC	Draw	Leganes B
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leganes B (rating 1455 vs 1520).
H2H favours Leganes B: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 13.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mexico FC	Leganes B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	2.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +25’	3.00	3.30	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mexico FC 2–1–3 Leganes B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	1-2 HT 1-1	Mexico FC
10/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Leganes B
18/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Leganes B
08/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	4-0 HT 2-0	Mexico FC
13/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 7	Mexico FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Leganes B
25/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 7	Leganes B	1-2 HT 0-1	Mexico FC

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Mostoles URJC	10	7	2	1	24	7	23
2	Las Rozas	10	5	3	2	22	17	18
3	CD Colonia Moscardo	10	4	6	0	20	10	18
4	CD Galapagar	10	5	3	2	21	16	18
5	AD Cala Pozuelo	10	5	2	3	14	12	17
6	Union Adarve	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
7	Trival Valderas	10	3	6	1	15	12	15
8	Leganes B	10	4	3	3	21	14	15
9	Pozuelo Alarcon	10	4	3	3	14	17	15
10	Torrejon	10	4	2	4	17	10	14
11	Fuenlabrada	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	AD Parla	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Real Aranjuez	10	2	4	4	15	21	10
14	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF	10	2	3	5	16	23	9
15	Rayo Vallecano B	10	2	3	5	14	19	9
16	UD San Sebastián Reyes B	10	2	1	7	14	27	7
17	Siello FC	10	2	1	7	9	28	7
18	Mexico FC	10	1	4	5	13	17	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mexico FC	Leganes B
AD Cala Pozuelo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Rayo Vallecano B	1-1 D	4-1 W
Las Rozas	3-4 L	2-3 L
Real Aranjuez	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leganes B (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mexico FC

DLDLWLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
31/10	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	4	11	D
24/10	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-3	3-4	4	4	L
17/10	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	2-2	8	5	D
11/10	Pozuelo Alarcon Spain Tercera Group 7	2-2	3-4	6	11	L
03/10	AD Parla Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
27/09	Siello FC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
19/09	Union Adarve Spain Tercera Group 7	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
13/09	Torrejon Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
05/09	Fuenlabrada Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-0	2	7	D

Leganes B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Colonia Moscardo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-2	1	8	D
01/11	UD San Sebastián Reyes B Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	4-0	4	6	W
25/10	Trival Valderas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
18/10	Rayo Ciudad Alcobendas CF Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
11/10	CD Galapagar Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-3	3	7	L
04/10	CD Mostoles URJC Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	1-1	5	11	D
26/09	AD Cala Pozuelo Spain Tercera Group 7	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
19/09	Rayo Vallecano B Spain Tercera Group 7	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
13/09	Las Rozas Spain Tercera Group 7	1-2	2-3	2	5	L
06/09	Real Aranjuez Spain Tercera Group 7	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mexico FC vs Leganes B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leganes B win (43%). Probabilities: Mexico FC 30%, draw 27%, Leganes B 43%.

How many goals are expected in Mexico FC vs Leganes B?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Mexico FC 1.28 · Leganes B 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mexico FC vs Leganes B?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.