Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 15/11, 11:45

Prediction: UE Tona vs UE Vilassar de Mar

Team pages: UE Tona · UE Vilassar de Mar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

UE Tona1.38

UE Vilassar de Mar0.97

1X2

46% 29% 26%

UE Tona Draw UE Vilassar de Mar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UE Tona 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWDWD

UE Vilassar de Mar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWDDW

Head-to-head

UE Tona 3–1–2 UE Vilassar de Mar (6 last)

UE Vilassar de Mar3-1UE Tona
UE Tona2-0UE Vilassar de Mar
UE Tona2-0UE Vilassar de Mar
UE Vilassar de Mar0-3UE Tona
UE Vilassar de Mar2-0UE Tona
UE Tona1-1UE Vilassar de Mar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UE Tona 1515 · UE Vilassar de Mar 1484

	UE Tona	Draw	UE Vilassar de Mar
Our model	45%	30%	25%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UE Tona: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UE Tona	UE Vilassar de Mar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/86/14%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.7	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:56 +19’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UE Tona 3–1–2 UE Vilassar de Mar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Vilassar de Mar	3-1	UE Tona
04/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	2-0	UE Vilassar de Mar
16/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	2-0 HT 0-0	UE Vilassar de Mar
03/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Vilassar de Mar	0-3	UE Tona
11/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Vilassar de Mar	2-0 HT 0-0	UE Tona
21/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	1-1	UE Vilassar de Mar

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vilanova Geltru	10	5	4	1	14	11	19
2	CE Europa B	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
3	CF Montanesa	10	5	2	3	13	7	17
4	Badalona	10	5	2	3	17	11	17
5	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	10	4	4	2	10	9	16
6	CE L'Hospitalet	10	3	6	1	13	11	15
7	Atletic Lleida	10	4	3	3	12	13	15
8	UE Tona	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
9	FE Grama	10	3	4	3	12	6	13
10	Pobla Mafumet	10	4	1	5	13	13	13
11	UE San Juan Montcada	10	4	1	5	14	18	13
12	UE Vilassar de Mar	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
13	FC Martinenc	10	3	3	4	19	20	12
14	Peralada	10	2	5	3	12	12	11
15	CFJ Mollerussa	10	3	2	5	10	12	11
16	UE Cornella	10	2	5	3	14	13	11
17	FC L'Escala	10	2	3	5	11	14	9
18	CP San Cristobal	10	2	2	6	7	23	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UE Tona	UE Vilassar de Mar
CF Montanesa	0-0 D	2-2 D
FC Martinenc	1-0 W	4-0 W
FC L'Escala	0-0 D	2-2 D
CE Europa B	1-0 W	1-6 L
FE Grama	1-0 W	0-3 L
Badalona	1-3 L	0-2 L
UE San Juan Montcada	1-2 L	1-2 L
Pobla Mafumet	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UE Tona

LWLLLWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
01/11	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
25/10	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/10	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
03/10	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
26/09	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	1-2	5	11	L
19/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-3	–	–	L
13/09	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	2	7	L

UE Vilassar de Mar

WLLLLDWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/11	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
25/10	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	2-0	2-2	5	5	D
18/10	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	4-0	1	9	W
10/10	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	1-3	1-6	5	3	L
27/09	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-3	4	8	L
20/09	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	0-2	5	7	L
12/09	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	1-2	1	7	L
05/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UE Tona vs UE Vilassar de Mar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UE Tona win (46%). Probabilities: UE Tona 46%, draw 29%, UE Vilassar de Mar 26%.

How many goals are expected in UE Tona vs UE Vilassar de Mar?

The model expects 2.35 goals (UE Tona 1.38 · UE Vilassar de Mar 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UE Tona vs UE Vilassar de Mar?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.