Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Vilanova Geltru vs CF Montanesa

Team pages: Vilanova Geltru · CF Montanesa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Vilanova Geltru1.36

CF Montanesa0.86

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Vilanova Geltru Draw CF Montanesa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vilanova Geltru 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDWLWW

CF Montanesa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLDWD

Head-to-head

Vilanova Geltru 1–1–0 CF Montanesa (2 last)

Vilanova Geltru2-1CF Montanesa
CF Montanesa0-0Vilanova Geltru

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vilanova Geltru 1553 · CF Montanesa 1516

	Vilanova Geltru	Draw	CF Montanesa
Our model	47%	30%	22%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vilanova Geltru	CF Montanesa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:48 +28’	2.15	3.20	3.00
22:22 +48’	1.85▼	3.30▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vilanova Geltru 1–1–0 CF Montanesa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	Vilanova Geltru	2-1 HT 0-0	CF Montanesa
02/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	CF Montanesa	0-0 HT 0-0	Vilanova Geltru

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vilanova Geltru	10	5	4	1	14	11	19
2	CE Europa B	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
3	CF Montanesa	10	5	2	3	13	7	17
4	Badalona	10	5	2	3	17	11	17
5	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	10	4	4	2	10	9	16
6	CE L'Hospitalet	10	3	6	1	13	11	15
7	Atletic Lleida	10	4	3	3	12	13	15
8	UE Tona	10	4	2	4	7	9	14
9	FE Grama	10	3	4	3	12	6	13
10	Pobla Mafumet	10	4	1	5	13	13	13
11	UE San Juan Montcada	10	4	1	5	14	18	13
12	UE Vilassar de Mar	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
13	FC Martinenc	10	3	3	4	19	20	12
14	Peralada	10	2	5	3	12	12	11
15	CFJ Mollerussa	10	3	2	5	10	12	11
16	UE Cornella	10	2	5	3	14	13	11
17	FC L'Escala	10	2	3	5	11	14	9
18	CP San Cristobal	10	2	2	6	7	23	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vilanova Geltru	CF Montanesa
FC Martinenc	2-1 W	2-3 L
FC L'Escala	2-1 W	2-0 W
CE Europa B	1-4 L	0-1 L
UE San Juan Montcada	2-0 W	3-0 W
FE Grama	0-0 D	1-0 W
Badalona	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CF Montanesa (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vilanova Geltru

DWDWDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
01/11	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-1	4	8	W
25/10	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	1-4	5	7	L
21/10	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
17/10	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/10	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/09	Pobla Mafumet Spain Tercera Group 5	2-1	3-2	5	9	W
19/09	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
13/09	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-2	0	7	D

CF Montanesa

WWWLLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/11	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
25/10	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
18/10	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
14/10	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
11/10	FC Martinenc Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
27/09	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
20/09	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/09	UE San Juan Montcada Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	3-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vilanova Geltru vs CF Montanesa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vilanova Geltru win (48%). Probabilities: Vilanova Geltru 48%, draw 29%, CF Montanesa 23%.

How many goals are expected in Vilanova Geltru vs CF Montanesa?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Vilanova Geltru 1.36 · CF Montanesa 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vilanova Geltru vs CF Montanesa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.