Football · Spain Tercera Group 16 · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Agoncillo vs San Marcial

Team pages: Agoncillo · San Marcial

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Agoncillo1.75

San Marcial1.36

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Agoncillo Draw San Marcial

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Agoncillo 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLDWWD

San Marcial 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWWWLL

Head-to-head

Agoncillo 1–2 San Marcial (3 last)

San Marcial4-3Agoncillo
Agoncillo3-2San Marcial
San Marcial2-1Agoncillo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Agoncillo 1529 · San Marcial 1515

	Agoncillo	Draw	San Marcial
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Marcial: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Agoncillo	San Marcial
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.8	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.95▲	Bet365 1.95
X	3.75 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +8’	1.61	3.75	4.33
23:53 +14’	1.95▲	3.50▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Agoncillo 1–0–2 San Marcial

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 16	San Marcial	4-3	Agoncillo
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 16	Agoncillo	3-2	San Marcial
04/12/16 Spain Tercera Group 16	San Marcial	2-1 HT 1-0	Agoncillo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 16

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Haro Deportivo	10	8	1	1	25	15	25
2	FC La Calzada	10	8	0	2	16	11	24
3	CD Alfaro	10	7	1	2	15	9	22
4	CD Calahorra	10	7	0	3	29	11	21
5	Varea	10	5	4	1	10	5	19
6	Berceo	10	6	0	4	22	14	18
7	Anguiano	10	5	2	3	16	9	17
8	Agoncillo	11	4	5	2	21	15	17
9	Oyonesa	10	5	2	3	15	11	17
10	San Marcial	11	4	4	3	13	9	16
11	Pradejón	10	4	1	5	10	13	13
12	Yagüe	10	4	0	6	13	22	12
13	Calasancio	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
14	River Ebro	10	2	1	7	10	22	7
15	Comillas	10	1	3	6	8	15	6
16	Cenicero	10	1	3	6	10	18	6
17	CA Vianes	10	1	1	8	11	20	4
18	Casalarreina CF	10	1	0	9	9	27	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Agoncillo	San Marcial
Cenicero	2-2 D	3-1 W
River Ebro	1-0 W	1-1 D
Berceo	3-1 W	1-2 L
Comillas	2-2 D	1-1 D
Varea	0-1 L	0-0 D
CA Vianes	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Agoncillo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Agoncillo

DDLWWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cenicero Spain Tercera Group 16	–	2-2	–	–	D
01/11	River Ebro Spain Tercera Group 16	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
25/10	Berceo Spain Tercera Group 16	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
17/10	Comillas Spain Tercera Group 16	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	Varea Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/10	CA Vianes Spain Tercera Group 16	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
26/09	Casalarreina CF Spain Tercera Group 16	3-0	5-1	7	4	W
18/09	CD Calahorra Spain Tercera Group 16	–	3-5	–	–	L
13/09	Anguiano Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Haro Deportivo Spain Tercera Group 16	0-1	1-1	5	5	D

San Marcial

WDDLDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Oyonesa Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-1	–	–	L
01/11	FC La Calzada Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/10	Pradejón Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/10	Yagüe Spain Tercera Group 16	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
11/10	Cenicero Spain Tercera Group 16	0-0	3-1	5	11	W
04/10	River Ebro Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Berceo Spain Tercera Group 16	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
18/09	Comillas Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Varea Spain Tercera Group 16	–	0-0	–	–	D
06/09	CA Vianes Spain Tercera Group 16	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Agoncillo vs San Marcial?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Agoncillo win (46%). Probabilities: Agoncillo 46%, draw 25%, San Marcial 29%.

How many goals are expected in Agoncillo vs San Marcial?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Agoncillo 1.75 · San Marcial 1.36), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Agoncillo vs San Marcial?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.