Football · Spain Tercera Group 18 · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Marchamalo vs Villarrubia CF

Team pages: Marchamalo · Villarrubia CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Marchamalo1.39

Villarrubia CF1.28

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Marchamalo Draw Villarrubia CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Marchamalo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLDLWLDL

Villarrubia CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLDLWDWW

Head-to-head

Marchamalo 1–1–4 Villarrubia CF (6 last)

Villarrubia CF2-2Marchamalo
Marchamalo0-2Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF0-2Marchamalo
Marchamalo0-1Villarrubia CF
Marchamalo1-2Villarrubia CF
Villarrubia CF1-0Marchamalo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marchamalo 1473 · Villarrubia CF 1513

	Marchamalo	Draw	Villarrubia CF
Our model	38%	28%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarrubia CF (rating 1473 vs 1513).
H2H favours Villarrubia CF: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marchamalo	Villarrubia CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.8	6.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:35 +34’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marchamalo 1–1–4 Villarrubia CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	2-2 HT 2-2	Marchamalo
13/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	0-2 HT 0-0	Villarrubia CF
08/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	0-2 HT 0-1	Marchamalo
28/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	0-1 HT 0-1	Villarrubia CF
11/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 18	Marchamalo	1-2 HT 0-2	Villarrubia CF
23/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 18	Villarrubia CF	1-0	Marchamalo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 18

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Manchego CR	10	8	0	2	18	8	24
2	Toledo	10	7	1	2	22	10	22
3	CD Villacanas	10	5	3	2	19	10	18
4	CD Villa	10	6	0	4	15	13	18
5	Villarrobledo	10	4	5	1	11	5	17
6	Illescas	10	5	2	3	13	12	17
7	CD Tarancon	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
8	AD San Clemente	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
9	CD Torrijos	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	CD Noblejas	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
11	Villarrubia CF	10	3	4	3	12	13	13
12	Almansa	10	3	3	4	13	11	12
13	Marchamalo	10	3	3	4	16	18	12
14	La Solana	10	4	0	6	9	11	12
15	Socuéllamos	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
16	Huracan Balazote	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	CD Quintanar del Rey	10	1	3	6	12	20	6
18	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	10	0	3	7	9	24	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marchamalo	Villarrubia CF
Toledo	0-2 L	1-1 D
CD Quintanar del Rey	3-3 D	2-1 W
AD San Clemente	1-3 L	1-1 D
Socuéllamos	1-0 W	1-0 W
CD Tarancon	2-2 D	1-1 D
CD Guadalajara S.A.D B	2-2 D	4-0 W
CD Villa	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Villarrubia CF (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marchamalo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	0-2	–	–	L
31/10	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	–	3-3	–	–	D
25/10	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/10	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	6	12	W
10/10	Almansa Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	1-3	7	7	L
03/10	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	CD Manchego CR Spain Tercera Group 18	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
20/09	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	2-2	14	5	D
13/09	Huracan Balazote Spain Tercera Group 18	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
05/09	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	2-0	2-0	4	4	W

Villarrubia CF

DDLLDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Quintanar del Rey Spain Tercera Group 18	–	2-1	–	–	W
01/11	Socuéllamos Spain Tercera Group 18	0-0	1-0	8	10	W
24/10	CD Tarancon Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	CD Guadalajara S.A.D B Spain Tercera Group 18	4-0	4-0	8	7	W
11/10	CD Villa Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-2	–	–	L
04/10	CD Torrijos Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Illescas Spain Tercera Group 18	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
19/09	Villarrobledo Spain Tercera Group 18	0-3	0-4	9	6	L
12/09	Toledo Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	AD San Clemente Spain Tercera Group 18	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marchamalo vs Villarrubia CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marchamalo win (38%). Probabilities: Marchamalo 38%, draw 29%, Villarrubia CF 33%.

How many goals are expected in Marchamalo vs Villarrubia CF?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Marchamalo 1.39 · Villarrubia CF 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Marchamalo vs Villarrubia CF?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.