Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Aviles Stadium CF vs El San Martin

Team pages: Aviles Stadium CF · El San Martin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Aviles Stadium CF1.16

El San Martin1.07

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Aviles Stadium CF Draw El San Martin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Aviles Stadium CF 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDLDW

El San Martin 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Aviles Stadium CF 2–1–1 El San Martin (4 last)

Aviles Stadium CF0-0El San Martin
El San Martin2-0Aviles Stadium CF
El San Martin0-1Aviles Stadium CF
Aviles Stadium CF1-0El San Martin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aviles Stadium CF 1481 · El San Martin 1527

	Aviles Stadium CF	Draw	El San Martin
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El San Martin (rating 1481 vs 1527).
H2H favours Aviles Stadium CF: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aviles Stadium CF	El San Martin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +48’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aviles Stadium CF 2–1–1 El San Martin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	0-0 HT 0-0	El San Martin
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	2-0	Aviles Stadium CF
13/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	El San Martin	0-1 HT 0-1	Aviles Stadium CF
01/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Aviles Stadium CF	1-0 HT 1-0	El San Martin

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Covadonga	10	7	2	1	26	11	23
2	Sporting Gijon B	10	6	3	1	17	9	21
3	Lealtad	10	6	2	2	14	4	20
4	Condal	10	5	5	0	13	4	20
5	Caudal	10	5	3	2	13	10	18
6	Gijon Industrial	10	5	2	3	16	11	17
7	Mosconia	10	4	4	2	16	14	16
8	El San Martin	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
9	Praviano	10	4	2	4	21	15	14
10	UP Langreo	10	3	3	4	11	13	12
11	Siero	10	4	0	6	11	14	12
12	CD Colunga	10	3	3	4	17	24	12
13	Aviles Stadium CF	10	3	2	5	8	13	11
14	Llanes	10	2	4	4	11	17	10
15	UC Ceares	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
16	Oviedo Astur	10	0	6	4	9	15	6
17	L'Entregu CF	10	1	2	7	5	18	5
18	Andes CF	10	0	3	7	8	21	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aviles Stadium CF	El San Martin
Lealtad	0-2 L	0-1 L
Sporting Gijon B	1-2 L	2-0 W
Praviano	1-0 W	1-0 W
L'Entregu CF	0-1 L	1-1 D
Covadonga	0-4 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: El San Martin (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aviles Stadium CF

LLWLLWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/11	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
25/10	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
18/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/10	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
20/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
06/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-4	2	4	L

El San Martin

LLDDWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
31/10	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	0	3	W
25/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
18/10	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	4-2	–	–	W
03/10	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
27/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
20/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-4	–	–	L
06/09	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aviles Stadium CF vs El San Martin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aviles Stadium CF win (37%). Probabilities: Aviles Stadium CF 37%, draw 30%, El San Martin 33%.

How many goals are expected in Aviles Stadium CF vs El San Martin?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Aviles Stadium CF 1.16 · El San Martin 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aviles Stadium CF vs El San Martin?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.