Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Lealtad vs Mosconia

Team pages: Mosconia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Lealtad1.42

Mosconia0.87

1X2

49% 28% 22%

Lealtad Draw Mosconia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lealtad 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWDWWW

Mosconia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDLWLD

Head-to-head

Lealtad 2–3–1 Mosconia (6 last)

Mosconia0-1Lealtad
Lealtad1-0Mosconia
Lealtad1-1Mosconia
Mosconia1-0Lealtad
Lealtad1-1Mosconia
Mosconia2-2Lealtad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lealtad 1562 · Mosconia 1517

	Lealtad	Draw	Mosconia
Our model	49%	30%	22%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lealtad (rating 1562 vs 1517).
H2H favours Lealtad: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lealtad	Mosconia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +23’	1.80	3.30	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lealtad 2–3–1 Mosconia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Mosconia	0-1 HT 0-0	Lealtad
21/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Lealtad	1-0 HT 0-0	Mosconia
23/01/22 Spain Tercera Group 2	Lealtad	1-1	Mosconia
19/09/21 Spain Tercera Group 2	Mosconia	1-0 HT 1-0	Lealtad
04/08/21 Europe Friendlies	Lealtad	1-1 HT 0-1	Mosconia
01/03/20 Spain Tercera Group 2	Mosconia	2-2 HT 0-2	Lealtad

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Covadonga	10	7	2	1	26	11	23
2	Sporting Gijon B	10	6	3	1	17	9	21
3	Lealtad	10	6	2	2	14	4	20
4	Condal	10	5	5	0	13	4	20
5	Caudal	10	5	3	2	13	10	18
6	Gijon Industrial	10	5	2	3	16	11	17
7	Mosconia	10	4	4	2	16	14	16
8	El San Martin	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
9	Praviano	10	4	2	4	21	15	14
10	UP Langreo	10	3	3	4	11	13	12
11	Siero	10	4	0	6	11	14	12
12	CD Colunga	10	3	3	4	17	24	12
13	Aviles Stadium CF	10	3	2	5	8	13	11
14	Llanes	10	2	4	4	11	17	10
15	UC Ceares	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
16	Oviedo Astur	10	0	6	4	9	15	6
17	L'Entregu CF	10	1	2	7	5	18	5
18	Andes CF	10	0	3	7	8	21	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lealtad	Mosconia
Llanes	1-1 D	5-1 W
Sporting Gijon B	0-1 L	1-1 D
Praviano	1-2 L	2-5 L
L'Entregu CF	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mosconia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lealtad

WLLDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/10	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/10	CD Colunga Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	4-0	3	4	W
18/10	Caudal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
10/10	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
04/10	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
27/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/09	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Mosconia

WWDWDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
31/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-5	–	–	L
25/10	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
18/10	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
10/10	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
04/10	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
20/09	Condal Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/09	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
06/09	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	–	5-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lealtad vs Mosconia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lealtad win (49%). Probabilities: Lealtad 49%, draw 28%, Mosconia 22%.

How many goals are expected in Lealtad vs Mosconia?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Lealtad 1.42 · Mosconia 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lealtad vs Mosconia?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.