Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 15/11, 18:00

Prediction: Caudal vs CD Colunga

Team pages: Caudal · CD Colunga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Caudal2.45

CD Colunga0.76

1X2

74% 17% 9%

Caudal Draw CD Colunga

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Caudal 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDWWL

CD Colunga 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDLLDL

Head-to-head

Caudal 4–1–1 CD Colunga (6 last)

CD Colunga0-1Caudal
Caudal2-0CD Colunga
CD Colunga0-2Caudal
Caudal2-0CD Colunga
Caudal0-0CD Colunga
CD Colunga1-0Caudal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caudal 1541 · CD Colunga 1462

	Caudal	Draw	CD Colunga
Our model	74%	17%	9%
Market	74%	17%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caudal (rating 1541 vs 1462).
H2H favours Caudal: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caudal	CD Colunga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	5.00 → 5.25▲	Pinn 6.66
2	7.50 → 10.00▲	Pinn 13.24 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:18 +4’	1.28	5.00	7.50
12:13	1.22▼	5.25▲	10.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:16 +10’	1.15	6.66	13.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Caudal 4–1–1 CD Colunga

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	0-1	Caudal
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Colunga
04/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	0-2	Caudal
22/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Colunga
14/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Colunga
26/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	CD Colunga	1-0	Caudal

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Covadonga	10	7	2	1	26	11	23
2	Sporting Gijon B	10	6	3	1	17	9	21
3	Lealtad	10	6	2	2	14	4	20
4	Condal	10	5	5	0	13	4	20
5	Caudal	10	5	3	2	13	10	18
6	Gijon Industrial	10	5	2	3	16	11	17
7	Mosconia	10	4	4	2	16	14	16
8	El San Martin	10	4	3	3	13	14	15
9	Praviano	10	4	2	4	21	15	14
10	UP Langreo	10	3	3	4	11	13	12
11	Siero	10	4	0	6	11	14	12
12	CD Colunga	10	3	3	4	17	24	12
13	Aviles Stadium CF	10	3	2	5	8	13	11
14	Llanes	10	2	4	4	11	17	10
15	UC Ceares	10	2	3	5	12	14	9
16	Oviedo Astur	10	0	6	4	9	15	6
17	L'Entregu CF	10	1	2	7	5	18	5
18	Andes CF	10	0	3	7	8	21	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caudal	CD Colunga
UP Langreo	1-0 W	2-3 L
Aviles Stadium CF	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lealtad	0-0 D	0-4 L
Sporting Gijon B	1-1 D	0-4 L
Praviano	1-1 D	5-5 D
L'Entregu CF	2-0 W	0-0 D
Covadonga	0-4 L	1-2 L
UC Ceares	2-1 W	4-3 W
Oviedo Astur	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caudal (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caudal

WWLWDDDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Llanes Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
01/11	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/10	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/10	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
11/10	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
04/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/09	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-4	1	10	L
13/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-0	3	1	W

CD Colunga

WWWLDDLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	2-3	6	7	L
01/11	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
25/10	Lealtad Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-4	4	4	L
18/10	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-3	0-4	1	1	L
10/10	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	5-5	–	–	D
03/10	L'Entregu CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
26/09	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	UC Ceares Spain Tercera Group 2	0-2	4-3	7	5	W
13/09	Oviedo Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Andes CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caudal vs CD Colunga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caudal win (74%). Probabilities: Caudal 74%, draw 17%, CD Colunga 9%.

How many goals are expected in Caudal vs CD Colunga?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Caudal 2.45 · CD Colunga 0.76), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Caudal vs CD Colunga?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.