Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: UD San Sebastian Reyes vs Real Madrid C

Team pages: UD San Sebastian Reyes · Real Madrid C

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

UD San Sebastian Reyes1.38

Real Madrid C0.69

1X2

53% 28% 19%

UD San Sebastian Reyes Draw Real Madrid C

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

UD San Sebastian Reyes 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Real Madrid C 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UD San Sebastian Reyes 2–2 Real Madrid C (4 last)

UD San Sebastian Reyes0-3Real Madrid C
Real Madrid C1-2UD San Sebastian Reyes
UD San Sebastian Reyes1-0Real Madrid C
Real Madrid C1-0UD San Sebastian Reyes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD San Sebastian Reyes 1523 · Real Madrid C 1487

	UD San Sebastian Reyes	Draw	Real Madrid C
Our model	52%	30%	18%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD San Sebastian Reyes	Real Madrid C
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +18’	1.65	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD San Sebastian Reyes 2–0–2 Real Madrid C

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	UD San Sebastian Reyes	0-3 HT 0-1	Real Madrid C
04/01/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Real Madrid C	1-2 HT 1-0	UD San Sebastian Reyes
22/03/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	UD San Sebastian Reyes	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Madrid C
10/11/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	Real Madrid C	1-0 HT 0-0	UD San Sebastian Reyes

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Numancia	10	5	4	1	16	5	19
2	Salamanca CF UDS	10	6	1	3	16	11	19
3	UD San Sebastian Reyes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Conquense	9	5	3	1	20	11	18
5	Atletico Madrid C	10	5	3	2	15	12	18
6	Valladolid Promesas	10	5	2	3	22	16	17
7	Navalcarnero	10	4	4	2	18	15	16
8	CF Talavera	9	4	3	2	11	8	15
9	CD Guadalajara	10	3	4	3	20	20	13
10	Albacete B	10	3	3	4	13	24	12
11	Real Madrid C	10	2	5	3	5	6	11
12	Atletico Tordesillas	10	2	4	4	16	16	10
13	Gimnastica Segoviana	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
13	RSD Alcala	10	2	4	4	14	15	10
15	CD Atletico Paso	10	2	4	4	11	13	10
16	Getafe B	10	1	5	4	13	17	8
17	Real Avila	10	2	1	7	8	18	7
18	Calvo Sotelo	10	1	3	6	6	20	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD San Sebastian Reyes	Real Madrid C
Albacete B	2-1 W	0-0 D
RSD Alcala	2-1 W	0-0 D
Real Avila	3-0 W	1-0 W
Valladolid Promesas	1-0 W	3-0 W
Atletico Tordesillas	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UD San Sebastian Reyes (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD San Sebastian Reyes

WWDLWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Getafe B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
01/11	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
24/10	RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/10	Calvo Sotelo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/10	Salamanca CF UDS Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-2	2-3	2	4	L
04/10	Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
26/09	Gimnastica Segoviana Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-2	8	6	L
19/09	Numancia Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
12/09	Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
06/09	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-1	3-1	7	4	W

Real Madrid C

DDLLDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Valladolid Promesas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/11	Real Avila Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
25/10	Conquense Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
18/10	RSD Alcala Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
11/10	Atletico Tordesillas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
07/10	CD Guadalajara Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	CD Atletico Paso Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Atletico Madrid C Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
13/09	CF Talavera Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/09	Albacete B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 5	0-0	0-0	2	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD San Sebastian Reyes vs Real Madrid C?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD San Sebastian Reyes win (53%). Probabilities: UD San Sebastian Reyes 53%, draw 28%, Real Madrid C 19%.

How many goals are expected in UD San Sebastian Reyes vs Real Madrid C?

The model expects 2.07 goals (UD San Sebastian Reyes 1.38 · Real Madrid C 0.69), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in UD San Sebastian Reyes vs Real Madrid C?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.