Football · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League · 15/11, 13:30
Prediction: HNK Tomislav vs NK Zvijezda Gradacac
Team pages: HNK Tomislav · NK Zvijezda Gradacac
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
HNK Tomislav1.45
NK Zvijezda Gradacac1.49
1X2
HNK Tomislav
Draw
NK Zvijezda Gradacac
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
HNK Tomislav
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
NK Zvijezda Gradacac
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HNK Tomislav
3–1–2
NK Zvijezda Gradacac
(6 last)
- NK Zvijezda Gradacac0-1HNK Tomislav
- HNK Tomislav1-0NK Zvijezda Gradacac
- HNK Tomislav1-0NK Zvijezda Gradacac
- NK Zvijezda Gradacac1-1HNK Tomislav
- NK Zvijezda Gradacac4-1HNK Tomislav
- HNK Tomislav0-1NK Zvijezda Gradacac
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HNK Tomislav 1471 · NK Zvijezda Gradacac 1515
| HNK Tomislav | Draw | NK Zvijezda Gradacac | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Zvijezda Gradacac (rating 1471 vs 1515).
- H2H favours HNK Tomislav: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HNK Tomislav | NK Zvijezda Gradacac | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/50/25% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 1.4 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Tomislav 3–1–2 NK Zvijezda Gradacac
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League | NK Zvijezda Gradacac | 0-1 HT 0-1 | HNK Tomislav |
| 26/10/24 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League | HNK Tomislav | 1-0 | NK Zvijezda Gradacac |
| 09/03/24 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League | HNK Tomislav | 1-0 HT 0-0 | NK Zvijezda Gradacac |
| 23/08/23 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League | NK Zvijezda Gradacac | 1-1 HT 1-1 | HNK Tomislav |
| 25/03/23 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League | NK Zvijezda Gradacac | 4-1 | HNK Tomislav |
| 03/09/22 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League | HNK Tomislav | 0-1 HT 0-0 | NK Zvijezda Gradacac |
Standings · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 6 | 39 |
| 2 | FK Laktasi | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 48 | 11 | 37 |
| 3 | FK Kozara Gradiska | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | FK Rudar Prijedor | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 24 |
| 5 | FK Potkozarje | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 23 |
| 6 | FK Drina Zvornik | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 22 |
| 7 | FK Majevica Lopare | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | FK Famos Vojkovici | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 20 |
| 9 | Romanija Pale | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 31 | 19 |
| 10 | Slavija Sarajevo | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 17 |
| 11 | FK Omarska | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 16 |
| 12 | Sutjeska Foca | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Velez Nevesinje | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 38 | 12 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HNK Tomislav | NK Zvijezda Gradacac |
|---|---|---|
| NK Vitez | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Rudar Kakanj | 1-0 W | 6-0 W |
| HNK Capljina | 2-4 L | 4-1 W |
| FK Igman Konjic | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Bratstvo Gracanica | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| NK Stupcanica Olovo | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Jedinstvo | 0-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: NK Zvijezda Gradacac (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HNK Tomislav
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | NK Tosk Tesanj Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/10 | Buducnost Banovici Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/10 | HSK Posusje Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/10 | NK Vitez Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Rudar Kakanj Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/10 | HNK Capljina Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | FK Igman Konjic Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Bratstvo Gracanica Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | NK Stupcanica Olovo Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Jedinstvo Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
NK Zvijezda Gradacac
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | NK Vitez Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 31/10 | Rudar Kakanj Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/10 | HNK Capljina Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/10 | FK Igman Konjic Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/10 | Bratstvo Gracanica Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/10 | NK Stupcanica Olovo Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/09 | Jedinstvo Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | NK Travnik Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Sloboda Tuzla Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | GOSK Gabela Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HNK Tomislav vs NK Zvijezda Gradacac?
According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Zvijezda Gradacac win (37%). Probabilities: HNK Tomislav 36%, draw 27%, NK Zvijezda Gradacac 37%.
How many goals are expected in HNK Tomislav vs NK Zvijezda Gradacac?
The model expects 2.94 goals (HNK Tomislav 1.45 · NK Zvijezda Gradacac 1.49), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in HNK Tomislav vs NK Zvijezda Gradacac?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.