Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 18:00
Prediction: FC Kontu vs MPS
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.52Total
FC Kontu1.65
MPS1.86
1X2
FC Kontu
Draw
MPS
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Kontu
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
MPS
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Kontu
2–2–2
MPS
(6 last)
- MPS2-1FC Kontu
- FC Kontu0-0MPS
- FC Kontu1-1MPS
- MPS2-1FC Kontu
- FC Kontu8-1MPS
- FC Kontu6-1MPS
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Kontu 1465 · MPS 1463
| FC Kontu | Draw | MPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 22% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.52 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Kontu | MPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.5 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 0.3 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 11/22/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.1 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kontu 2–2–2 MPS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/25 Finland Kolmonen | MPS | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Kontu |
| 14/06/25 Finland Kolmonen | FC Kontu | 0-0 HT 0-0 | MPS |
| 05/08/22 Finland Kolmonen | FC Kontu | 1-1 HT 0-0 | MPS |
| 28/04/22 Finland Kolmonen | MPS | 2-1 HT 2-0 | FC Kontu |
| 25/09/21 Finland Kolmonen | FC Kontu | 8-1 HT 5-1 | MPS |
| 09/07/21 Finland Kolmonen | FC Kontu | 6-1 HT 3-1 | MPS |
Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ToTe | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 12 | 28 |
| 2 | MPS/Atletico Malmi | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 28 |
| 3 | PPJ/Lauttasaari | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 46 | 20 | 25 |
| 4 | Valtti | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 21 |
| 5 | LPS Helsinki | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 19 |
| 6 | VJS Vantaa II | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 25 | 17 |
| 7 | Tips Vantaa | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 31 | 16 |
| 8 | HPS II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 34 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlantis FC/PM | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 50 | 14 |
| 10 | Toolon Taisto | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 25 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Kontu | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 33 | 13 |
| 12 | PPS | 13 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 52 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Kontu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | HPS II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/07 | PPS Finland Kolmonen |
1-1 | 4-3 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen |
0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | ToTe Finland Kolmonen |
1-4 | 2-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Valtti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
MPS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen |
1-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 01/07 | EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Poxyt Finland Kolmonen |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | NuPS Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/06 | HooGee Finland Kolmonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/05 | PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 22/05 | LePa Finland Kolmonen |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | ESPA Finland Kolmonen |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | LoPa Finland Kolmonen |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Kontu vs MPS?
According to our model, the most likely result is an MPS win (43%). Probabilities: FC Kontu 34%, draw 23%, MPS 43%.
How many goals are expected in FC Kontu vs MPS?
The model expects 3.52 goals (FC Kontu 1.65 · MPS 1.86), with a 59% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Kontu vs MPS?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.