Football · Uruguay Clausura · 08/08, 23:30
Prediction: Torque vs Penarol
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Torque1.32
Penarol1.73
1X2
Torque
Draw
Penarol
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Torque
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Penarol
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Torque
1–5
Penarol
(6 last)
- Penarol3-1Torque
- Torque0-2Penarol
- Penarol2-1Torque
- Penarol1-3Torque
- Torque2-3Penarol
- Penarol2-0Torque
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Torque 1491 · Penarol 1564
| Torque | Draw | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1491 vs 1564).
- H2H favours Penarol: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Torque | Penarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.7 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Torque 1–0–5 Penarol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Torque |
| 09/11/25 Uruguay Clausura | Torque | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Penarol |
| 18/05/25 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Torque |
| 18/04/24 Uruguay Cup | Penarol | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Torque |
| 19/10/23 Uruguay Clausura | Torque | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Penarol |
| 04/07/23 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Torque |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Torque
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 27/05 | Gremio Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Riestra Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Torque vs Penarol?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (45%). Probabilities: Torque 28%, draw 27%, Penarol 45%.
How many goals are expected in Torque vs Penarol?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Torque 1.32 · Penarol 1.73), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Torque vs Penarol?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.