Football · England FA WSL 2 · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: Durham (W) vs Sunderland (W)

Team pages: Durham (W) · Sunderland (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Durham (W)0.99

Sunderland (W)2.3

1X2

14% 20% 66%

Durham (W) Draw Sunderland (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Durham (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLLLLL

Sunderland (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Durham (W) 1–1–4 Sunderland (W) (6 last)

Durham (W)2-3Sunderland (W)
Sunderland (W)1-1Durham (W)
Sunderland (W)2-1Durham (W)
Sunderland (W)2-0Durham (W)
Sunderland (W)1-2Durham (W)
Durham (W)1-2Sunderland (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Durham (W) 1361 · Sunderland (W) 1530

	Durham (W)	Draw	Sunderland (W)
Our model	14%	20%	66%
Market	14%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sunderland (W) (rating 1361 vs 1530).
H2H favours Sunderland (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Durham (W)	Sunderland (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.75

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:52 +46’	6.25	4.75	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Durham (W) 1–1–4 Sunderland (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 England FA WSL 2	Durham (W)	2-3 HT 1-0	Sunderland (W)
23/11/25 England FA National League Cup Women	Sunderland (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Durham (W)
19/09/25 England FA WSL 2	Sunderland (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Durham (W)
02/03/25 England Championship Women	Sunderland (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Durham (W)
11/12/24 England League Cup Women	Sunderland (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Durham (W)
20/10/24 England Championship Women	Durham (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Sunderland (W)

Standings · England FA WSL 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Newcastle (W)	6	5	1	0	16	3	16
2	Ipswich Town (W)	6	4	2	0	10	4	14
3	Sunderland (W)	6	4	1	1	12	7	13
4	Bristol City (W)	6	3	1	2	12	9	10
5	Nottm Forest (W)	6	2	4	0	10	7	10
6	Southampton (W)	6	1	4	1	7	6	7
7	Wolverhampton (W)	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
8	Leicester (W)	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
9	Sheff Utd (W)	6	2	0	4	11	14	6
10	Watford (W)	6	1	3	2	10	13	6
11	Burnley (W)	6	0	2	4	4	11	2
12	Durham (W)	6	0	0	6	7	20	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Durham (W)	Sunderland (W)
Watford (W)	2-4 L	2-1 W
Newcastle (W)	0-3 L	1-1 D
Leicester (W)	2-4 L	3-1 W
Southampton (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
Bristol City (W)	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sunderland (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Durham (W)

LDWWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Watford (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	2-4	8	2	L
04/10	Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
27/09	Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-4	4	6	L
20/09	Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
13/09	Leicester (W) England FA WSL 2	1-3	2-4	6	0	L
06/09	Southampton (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	1-3	3	2	L
02/05	Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
26/04	Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
05/04	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	2-2	9	1	D
29/03	Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2	1-2	1-2	0	3	L

Sunderland (W)

DLLLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
04/10	Leicester (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
27/09	Watford (W) England FA WSL 2	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
20/09	Southampton (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
13/09	Burnley (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
06/09	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
02/05	Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
26/04	Crystal Palace (W) England FA WSL 2	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
01/04	Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
29/03	Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Durham (W) vs Sunderland (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sunderland (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Durham (W) 14%, draw 20%, Sunderland (W) 66%.

How many goals are expected in Durham (W) vs Sunderland (W)?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Durham (W) 0.99 · Sunderland (W) 2.3), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Durham (W) vs Sunderland (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.