Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 05/08, 15:00

Prediction: FC Aral Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad

Team pages: Metallurg Bekabad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

FC Aral Nukus1.86

Metallurg Bekabad1.2

1X2

52% 25% 24%

FC Aral Nukus Draw Metallurg Bekabad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Aral Nukus 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLDWL

Metallurg Bekabad 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDLWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Aral Nukus 1530 · Metallurg Bekabad 1523

	FC Aral Nukus	Draw	Metallurg Bekabad
Our model	52%	25%	24%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Aral Nukus	Metallurg Bekabad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
03:03 +3’	1.73	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	12	10	2	0	29	8	32
2	Shurtan	12	8	2	2	18	12	26
3	Kattaqorgon	12	7	3	2	15	7	24
4	Metallurg Bekabad	12	6	3	3	30	11	21
5	FC Lochin	12	6	3	3	20	14	21
6	Fardu Ferghana	12	5	4	3	16	20	19
7	Olympic Mobiuz	12	5	3	4	25	14	18
8	Gazalkent	12	5	3	4	17	16	18
9	Jayxun	12	4	2	6	14	18	14
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	12	4	1	7	14	23	13
11	Respublika FA	12	3	3	6	14	14	12
12	BuxDu	12	3	1	8	10	26	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	12	1	1	10	7	29	4
14	PFC Terdu	12	1	1	10	8	25	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Aral Nukus	Metallurg Bekabad
Fardu Ferghana	1-1 D	7-0 W
Olympic Mobiuz	1-3 L	1-1 D
Jayxun	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Aral Nukus

WWWWLWLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/12	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
03/11	FK Olympic Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
27/10	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
20/10	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-3	6	4	L
05/10	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
26/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
14/09	FK Olympic Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
26/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
19/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
12/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	2	W

Metallurg Bekabad

WDLDWDLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
23/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
08/06	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	7-0	5	5	W
04/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
31/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
10/05	AGMK Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	3-3	7	5	D
05/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
30/04	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Aral Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Aral Nukus win (52%). Probabilities: FC Aral Nukus 52%, draw 25%, Metallurg Bekabad 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Aral Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model expects 3.07 goals (FC Aral Nukus 1.86 · Metallurg Bekabad 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Aral Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.