Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Team pages: Las Vegas Lights FC · Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Las Vegas Lights FC1.05

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.06

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Las Vegas Lights FC Draw Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Las Vegas Lights FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWWWD

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Las Vegas Lights FC 2–2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4 last)

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-0Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC2-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds4-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC1-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Vegas Lights FC 1506 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1506

	Las Vegas Lights FC	Draw	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Our model	33%	33%	34%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Vegas Lights FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.7	1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +8’	2.55	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 2–0–2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-0 HT 1-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
30/06/24 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
21/05/23 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	4-1 HT 2-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
17/04/22 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	18	9	7	2	29	19	34
2	San Antonio FC	18	8	7	3	25	20	31
3	New Mexico United	15	8	3	4	20	15	27
4	Sacramento Republic	16	7	5	4	24	15	26
5	Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	Lexington SC	17	7	4	6	27	22	25
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	17	7	4	6	28	24	25
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	17	6	4	7	27	27	22
9	Phoenix Rising FC	18	5	7	6	24	25	22
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	17	6	4	7	25	27	22
11	Oakland Roots	18	5	6	7	25	28	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	18	4	3	11	19	30	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Vegas Lights FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Oakland Roots	0-2 L	1-0 W
Tulsa	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Las Vegas Lights FC

WDLWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
12/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup	0-2	3-2	4	8	W
05/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
21/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
14/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
07/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
31/05	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
24/05	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	6	W

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

DWDLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
30/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
26/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
18/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
16/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
12/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
05/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
21/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
14/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
07/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (35%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 34%, draw 31%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 35%.

How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.05 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.06), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.