Prediction: Birmingham Legion FC vs Lexington SC
Team pages: Birmingham Legion FC · Lexington SC
| Birmingham Legion FC | Draw | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | 32% | 26% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1495 vs 1540).
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Birmingham Legion FC | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.1 | 1.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 5 / 0.3 |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 31 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | Lexington SC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 25 |
| 7 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 25 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 22 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Birmingham Legion FC | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Louisville City FC | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Tulsa | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Detroit City FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Oakland Roots | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Birmingham Legion FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 12/07 | Tulsa USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 06/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 03/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 21/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 23/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Birmingham Legion FC vs Lexington SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lexington SC win (41%). Probabilities: Birmingham Legion FC 32%, draw 27%, Lexington SC 41%.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham Legion FC vs Lexington SC?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Birmingham Legion FC 1.31 · Lexington SC 1.53), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Birmingham Legion FC vs Lexington SC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.