Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Phoenix Rising FC vs Loudoun United FC

Team pages: Phoenix Rising FC · Loudoun United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Phoenix Rising FC1.99

Loudoun United FC1.16

1X2

56% 24% 21%

Phoenix Rising FC Draw Loudoun United FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Phoenix Rising FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Loudoun United FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Phoenix Rising FC 2–1–1 Loudoun United FC (4 last)

Phoenix Rising FC2-2Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC0-1Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC3-1Loudoun United FC
Loudoun United FC4-3Phoenix Rising FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Phoenix Rising FC 1452 · Loudoun United FC 1465

	Phoenix Rising FC	Draw	Loudoun United FC
Our model	56%	24%	21%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Phoenix Rising FC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Phoenix Rising FC	Loudoun United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	1.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +3’	1.61	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Phoenix Rising FC 2–1–1 Loudoun United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/25 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	2-2 HT 0-2	Loudoun United FC
01/09/24 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Phoenix Rising FC
30/04/23 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Loudoun United FC
19/06/22 USA USL Championship	Loudoun United FC	4-3 HT 1-1	Phoenix Rising FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	18	9	7	2	29	19	34
2	San Antonio FC	18	8	7	3	25	20	31
3	New Mexico United	15	8	3	4	20	15	27
4	Sacramento Republic	16	7	5	4	24	15	26
5	Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	Lexington SC	17	7	4	6	27	22	25
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	17	7	4	6	28	24	25
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	17	6	4	7	27	27	22
9	Phoenix Rising FC	18	5	7	6	24	25	22
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	17	6	4	7	25	27	22
11	Oakland Roots	18	5	6	7	25	28	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	18	4	3	11	19	30	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
19/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	9	4	W
12/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
05/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
21/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	3-4	9	7	L
14/06	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
07/06	New Mexico United USA USL Cup	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
31/05	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	5	5	W

Loudoun United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
26/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
19/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
04/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
25/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
21/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
14/06	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-4	1	5	L
11/06	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
07/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup	0-0	2-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Phoenix Rising FC vs Loudoun United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Phoenix Rising FC win (56%). Probabilities: Phoenix Rising FC 56%, draw 24%, Loudoun United FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Phoenix Rising FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Phoenix Rising FC 1.99 · Loudoun United FC 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising FC vs Loudoun United FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.