Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 23:00
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven
Team pages: Tampa Bay Rowdies · Indy Eleven
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Tampa Bay Rowdies1.94
Indy Eleven0.79
1X2
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Draw
Indy Eleven
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Tampa Bay Rowdies
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Indy Eleven
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tampa Bay Rowdies
5–1–0
Indy Eleven
(6 last)
- Tampa Bay Rowdies1-0Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven1-3Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Tampa Bay Rowdies3-1Indy Eleven
- Tampa Bay Rowdies3-0Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven0-2Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Indy Eleven0-0Tampa Bay Rowdies
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1557 · Indy Eleven 1486
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Indy Eleven | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1557 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 3.2 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 5–1–0 Indy Eleven
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Indy Eleven |
| 03/08/25 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 26/06/25 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Indy Eleven |
| 27/10/24 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Indy Eleven |
| 21/07/24 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 23/07/23 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 30 |
| 3 | Detroit City FC | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 28 |
| 4 | Louisville City FC | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 27 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 26 |
| 6 | Miami FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 22 |
| 7 | Rhode Island FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 22 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 20 |
| 10 | Loudoun United FC | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 29 | 18 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion FC | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 32 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 51 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Loudoun United FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Lexington SC | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Charleston Battery | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 5-4 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 19/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Indy Eleven
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (64%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 64%, draw 22%, Indy Eleven 14%.
How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.94 · Indy Eleven 0.79), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.