Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 01:30

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Rhode Island FC

Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Rhode Island FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Sacramento Republic1.29

Rhode Island FC0.95

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Sacramento Republic Draw Rhode Island FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Rhode Island FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sacramento Republic 2–2–0 Rhode Island FC (4 last)

Sacramento Republic2-1Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC0-0Sacramento Republic
Rhode Island FC0-2Sacramento Republic
Rhode Island FC2-2Sacramento Republic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sacramento Republic 1523 · Rhode Island FC 1529

	Sacramento Republic	Draw	Rhode Island FC
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	Rhode Island FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	3.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:33 +2’	2.00	3.20	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 2–2–0 Rhode Island FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-1 HT 2-1	Rhode Island FC
11/09/25 USA USL Cup	Rhode Island FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
22/06/25 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
12/05/24 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Sacramento Republic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	18	9	7	2	29	19	34
2	San Antonio FC	18	8	7	3	25	20	31
3	New Mexico United	15	8	3	4	20	15	27
4	Sacramento Republic	16	7	5	4	24	15	26
5	Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	Lexington SC	17	7	4	6	27	22	25
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	17	7	4	6	28	24	25
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	17	6	4	7	27	27	22
9	Phoenix Rising FC	18	5	7	6	24	25	22
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	17	6	4	7	25	27	22
11	Oakland Roots	18	5	6	7	25	28	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	18	4	3	11	19	30	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sacramento Republic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
21/06	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
07/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
31/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
24/05	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	7	9	L

Rhode Island FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	13	3	L
26/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
12/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
09/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
05/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
14/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
07/06	Westchester SC USA USL Cup	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
31/05	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
24/05	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Rhode Island FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (44%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 44%, draw 29%, Rhode Island FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Rhode Island FC?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.29 · Rhode Island FC 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Rhode Island FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.