Football · Norway Division 3 Group 5 · 03/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lillestrøm 2 vs Kongsvinger 2

Team pages: Lillestrøm 2 · Kongsvinger 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.56Total

Lillestrøm 22.7

Kongsvinger 21.86

1X2

55% 19% 26%

Lillestrøm 2 Draw Kongsvinger 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrøm 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLLWWL

Kongsvinger 2 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Lillestrøm 2 2–2 Kongsvinger 2 (4 last)

Kongsvinger 23-1Lillestrøm 2
Lillestrøm 23-0Kongsvinger 2
Kongsvinger 24-1Lillestrøm 2
Lillestrøm 23-2Kongsvinger 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrøm 2 1525 · Kongsvinger 2 1470

	Lillestrøm 2	Draw	Kongsvinger 2
Our model	55%	19%	26%
Market	56%	19%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillestrøm 2 (rating 1525 vs 1470).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrøm 2	Kongsvinger 2
Goals for / against (FT)	3.8 / 2.3	1.8 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.5	2.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.75

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.93

Under 4.51.88

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 5.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +2’	1.61	4.75	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrøm 2 2–0–2 Kongsvinger 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Kongsvinger 2	3-1 HT 1-0	Lillestrøm 2
12/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Lillestrøm 2	3-0 HT 2-0	Kongsvinger 2
14/04/25 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Kongsvinger 2	4-1 HT 3-1	Lillestrøm 2
24/08/21 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Lillestrøm 2	3-2 HT 3-1	Kongsvinger 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Skedsmo	13	10	0	3	30	18	30
2	Fløya	14	8	2	4	33	24	26
3	Finnsnes IL	13	8	2	3	28	19	26
4	Alta	14	6	5	3	31	23	23
5	Fauske/Sprint	14	6	4	4	38	46	22
6	Lillestrøm 2	13	7	0	6	42	28	21
7	Skjetten	14	6	2	6	33	29	20
8	Skjervøy	14	6	2	6	26	34	20
9	Harstad	13	5	3	5	39	22	18
10	Strømsgodset 2	13	5	2	6	27	29	17
11	Kongsvinger 2	13	5	2	6	25	29	17
12	IL Ulfstind	14	3	2	9	26	43	11
13	Bossekop	13	2	2	9	19	43	8
14	Tromso 2	13	1	4	8	21	31	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrøm 2	Kongsvinger 2
Fløya	2-3 L	1-3 L
Tromso 2	5-3 W	2-1 W
IL Ulfstind	10-1 W	4-3 W
Alta	2-4 L	1-1 D
Skedsmo	1-2 L	1-3 L
Harstad	3-2 W	1-6 L
Finnsnes IL	3-2 W	0-1 L
Bossekop	6-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lillestrøm 2 (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lillestrøm 2

WWWLWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
28/06	Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	4-0	5-3	4	2	W
20/06	IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5	4-0	10-1	4	6	W
14/06	Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	3-4	–	–	L
30/05	Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-4	2-4	6	6	L
26/05	Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
16/05	Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
09/05	Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
03/05	Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-0	3-2	7	6	W
26/04	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	3-1	6-1	–	–	W

Kongsvinger 2

DWDLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
27/06	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
21/06	Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-2	1-6	–	–	L
15/06	Skjetten Norway Division 3 Group 5	3-3	3-5	2	1	L
31/05	Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
22/05	Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
14/05	Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
09/05	Skjervøy Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
02/05	IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-1	4-3	–	–	W
25/04	Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	1-1	3	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrøm 2 vs Kongsvinger 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lillestrøm 2 win (55%). Probabilities: Lillestrøm 2 55%, draw 19%, Kongsvinger 2 26%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrøm 2 vs Kongsvinger 2?

The model expects 4.56 goals (Lillestrøm 2 2.7 · Kongsvinger 2 1.86), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrøm 2 vs Kongsvinger 2?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.