Football · South Africa Supa 8 Cup · 09/08, 18:00

Prediction: Kaizer Chiefs vs Golden Arrows

Team pages: Kaizer Chiefs · Golden Arrows

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Kaizer Chiefs1.47

Golden Arrows0.7

1X2

54% 29% 17%

Kaizer Chiefs Draw Golden Arrows

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Kaizer Chiefs 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWWLDLW

Golden Arrows 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDWDLD

Head-to-head

Kaizer Chiefs 3–3 Golden Arrows (6 last)

Kaizer Chiefs1-0Golden Arrows
Golden Arrows0-1Kaizer Chiefs
Golden Arrows2-1Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs0-1Golden Arrows
Kaizer Chiefs1-0Golden Arrows
Golden Arrows2-1Kaizer Chiefs

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kaizer Chiefs 1529 · Golden Arrows 1489

	Kaizer Chiefs	Draw	Golden Arrows
Our model	54%	29%	17%
Market	54%	29%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaizer Chiefs (rating 1529 vs 1489).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kaizer Chiefs	Golden Arrows
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.9 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.42 ★
2	7.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +3’	1.44	3.50	7.50
20:23 +10’	1.60▲	3.25▼	5.75▼
06:52 +17’	1.67▲	3.10▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +7’	1.66	3.37	5.23
16:23 +4’	1.67▲	3.42▲	5.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kaizer Chiefs 3–0–3 Golden Arrows

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/01/26 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	1-0 HT 1-0	Golden Arrows
30/08/25 South Africa Premier	Golden Arrows	0-1 HT 0-0	Kaizer Chiefs
29/03/25 South Africa Premier	Golden Arrows	2-1 HT 1-1	Kaizer Chiefs
12/01/25 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	0-1 HT 0-0	Golden Arrows
05/03/24 South Africa Premier	Kaizer Chiefs	1-0 HT 1-0	Golden Arrows
28/10/23 South Africa Premier	Golden Arrows	2-1 HT 1-1	Kaizer Chiefs

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kaizer Chiefs	Golden Arrows
Chippa United	0-1 L	0-0 D
Amazulu	1-0 W	1-1 D
Siwelele FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
Orlando Pirates	1-1 D	0-5 L
Polokwane City	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kaizer Chiefs

DDLDWWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Kruger United South Africa Premier	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
18/07	Elche World Club Friendlies	0-2	1-2	0	3	L
15/07	Al Kholood World Club Friendlies	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
23/05	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/05	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/05	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
06/05	Mamelodi Sundowns South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
29/04	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-2	0-2	13	4	L
26/04	Orlando Pirates South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
18/04	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Golden Arrows

LWWDDDWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	13	4	D
25/07	Milford FC South Africa Cup	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
23/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
16/05	Chippa United South Africa Premier	2-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
06/05	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
24/04	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/04	Orbit College South Africa Premier	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	Durban City South Africa Premier	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
07/04	Orlando Pirates South Africa Premier	0-3	0-5	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kaizer Chiefs vs Golden Arrows?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kaizer Chiefs win (54%). Probabilities: Kaizer Chiefs 54%, draw 29%, Golden Arrows 17%.

How many goals are expected in Kaizer Chiefs vs Golden Arrows?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Kaizer Chiefs 1.47 · Golden Arrows 0.7), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Kaizer Chiefs vs Golden Arrows?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.