Football · Bahrain Division 2 · 14/09, 18:00

Prediction: Qalali vs Umm Al Hassam

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Qalali0.79

Umm Al Hassam2.25

1X2

11% 18% 70%

Qalali Draw Umm Al Hassam

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Qalali 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWLLLL

Umm Al Hassam 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDDLLL

Head-to-head

Qalali 1–1–4 Umm Al Hassam (6 last)

Qalali1-1Umm Al Hassam
Umm Al Hassam3-1Qalali
Umm Al Hassam2-0Qalali
Qalali0-4Umm Al Hassam
Qalali2-0Umm Al Hassam
Umm Al Hassam2-0Qalali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qalali 1402 · Umm Al Hassam 1457

	Qalali	Draw	Umm Al Hassam
Our model	11%	20%	70%
Market	12%	17%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umm Al Hassam (rating 1402 vs 1457).
H2H favours Umm Al Hassam: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qalali	Umm Al Hassam
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3.2	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.3	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/11/67%	11/67/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	1.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.25

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:17 +4’	7.50	5.25	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qalali 1–1–4 Umm Al Hassam

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Bahrain Division 2	Qalali	1-1 HT 0-0	Umm Al Hassam
24/10/25 Bahrain Division 2	Umm Al Hassam	3-1 HT 2-1	Qalali
22/02/25 Bahrain Division 2	Umm Al Hassam	2-0 HT 1-0	Qalali
18/10/24 Bahrain Division 2	Qalali	0-4 HT 0-2	Umm Al Hassam
28/02/24 Bahrain Division 2	Qalali	2-0 HT 2-0	Umm Al Hassam
04/10/23 Bahrain Division 2	Umm Al Hassam	2-0 HT 1-0	Qalali

Standings · Bahrain Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bahrain SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Budaiya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Hala	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ittihad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Tadamun Buri	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Shabab Manama	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Buri Cultural SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Busaiteen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Etehad Al Reef	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Isa Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Qalali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Umm Al Hassam	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qalali	Umm Al Hassam
East Riffa	0-4 L	2-2 D
Al Ittihad	0-5 L	0-3 L
Buri Cultural SC	1-4 L	1-2 L
Isa Town	1-0 W	0-1 L
Busaiteen	0-4 L	1-1 D
Al Hala	0-2 L	0-0 D
Al Ittifaq Maqaba	0-4 L	1-3 L
Al Tadamun Buri	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Umm Al Hassam (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qalali

DDLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/05	East Riffa Bahrain Division 2	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
07/05	Manama Bahrain Division 2	0-3	2-6	1	5	L
02/05	Al Ittihad Bahrain Division 2	0-1	0-5	2	2	L
26/04	Buri Cultural SC Bahrain Division 2	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
19/04	Isa Town Bahrain Division 2	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/04	Busaiteen Bahrain Division 2	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
06/04	Al Hala Bahrain Division 2	0-2	0-2	3	10	L
16/03	Al Ittifaq Maqaba Bahrain Division 2	–	0-4	–	–	L
22/02	Al Tadamun Buri Bahrain Division 2	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
15/02	Umm Al Hassam Bahrain Division 2	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Umm Al Hassam

DLDWLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/05	Al Ittihad Bahrain Division 2	0-1	0-3	6	7	L
07/05	Buri Cultural SC Bahrain Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
01/05	Isa Town Bahrain Division 2	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
26/04	Busaiteen Bahrain Division 2	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
19/04	Al Hala Bahrain Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
14/04	Al Ittifaq Maqaba Bahrain Division 2	0-1	1-3	4	6	L
07/04	Al Tadamun Buri Bahrain Division 2	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
15/03	East Riffa Bahrain Division 2	–	2-2	–	–	D
23/02	Etehad Al Reef Bahrain Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
15/02	Qalali Bahrain Division 2	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qalali vs Umm Al Hassam?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Umm Al Hassam win (70%). Probabilities: Qalali 11%, draw 18%, Umm Al Hassam 70%.

How many goals are expected in Qalali vs Umm Al Hassam?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Qalali 0.79 · Umm Al Hassam 2.25), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Qalali vs Umm Al Hassam?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.