Football · Tanzania Premier League · 23/10, 13:00

Prediction: Simba Sports Club vs Mbeya City

Team pages: Simba Sports Club · Mbeya City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Simba Sports Club2.35

Mbeya City0.41

1X2

81% 14% 5%

Simba Sports Club Draw Mbeya City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

2-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Simba Sports Club 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Mbeya City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Simba Sports Club 5–1–0 Mbeya City (6 last)

Mbeya City0-1Simba Sports Club
Simba Sports Club3-0Mbeya City
Simba Sports Club3-1Mbeya City
Simba Sports Club3-2Mbeya City
Mbeya City1-1Simba Sports Club
Simba Sports Club3-0Mbeya City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Simba Sports Club 1677 · Mbeya City 1471

	Simba Sports Club	Draw	Mbeya City
Our model	80%	15%	4%
Market	82%	13%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Simba Sports Club (rating 1677 vs 1471).
H2H favours Simba Sports Club: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Simba Sports Club	Mbeya City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.5	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.13

X7.00

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)2.00

2 (+2.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +4’	1.13	7.00	17.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Simba Sports Club 5–1–0 Mbeya City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Tanzania Premier League	Mbeya City	0-1 HT 0-1	Simba Sports Club
04/12/25 Tanzania Premier League	Simba Sports Club	3-0 HT 2-0	Mbeya City
13/04/25 Tanzania Cup	Simba Sports Club	3-1 HT 3-1	Mbeya City
18/01/23 Tanzania Premier League	Simba Sports Club	3-2 HT 1-1	Mbeya City
23/11/22 Tanzania Premier League	Mbeya City	1-1 HT 0-1	Simba Sports Club
16/06/22 Tanzania Premier League	Simba Sports Club	3-0 HT 1-0	Mbeya City

Standings · Tanzania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Simba Sports Club	8	8	0	0	19	4	24
2	Young Africans	7	6	0	1	17	4	18
3	Azam FC	8	5	2	1	13	7	17
4	Dodoma Jiji FC	8	4	2	2	8	5	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	4	1	3	11	12	13
6	Mashujaa FC	8	4	0	4	9	13	12
7	Singida Black Stars	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
8	Polisi Tanzania FC	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
9	Mbeya City	8	3	1	4	8	9	10
10	Coastal Union	8	3	1	4	7	11	10
11	Namungo FC	8	3	0	5	7	11	9
12	Geita Gold	8	2	1	5	9	15	7
13	TRA United	7	1	3	3	6	7	6
14	Kagera Sugar	8	1	3	4	9	16	6
15	Pamba SC	8	1	2	5	9	14	5
16	Singida Fountain Gate FC	8	1	2	5	4	12	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Simba Sports Club	Mbeya City
Mashujaa FC	6-1 W	2-1 W
Geita Gold	2-0 W	0-1 L
Kagera Sugar	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Simba Sports Club (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Simba Sports Club

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League	2-0	6-1	2	3	W
10/10	Young Africans Tanzania Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Azam FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
31/08	Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
27/08	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	15	3	W
22/08	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
16/08	Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/06	KMC FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/06	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Mbeya City

DDLWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/10	Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
04/09	TRA United Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
28/08	Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
23/08	Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
19/08	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
14/08	Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
08/07	Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
30/06	TRA United Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Simba Sports Club vs Mbeya City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Simba Sports Club win (81%). Probabilities: Simba Sports Club 81%, draw 14%, Mbeya City 5%.

How many goals are expected in Simba Sports Club vs Mbeya City?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Simba Sports Club 2.35 · Mbeya City 0.41), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Simba Sports Club vs Mbeya City?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.