Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 14/11, 14:30

Prediction: AC Reggiana vs Livorno

Team pages: AC Reggiana · Livorno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

AC Reggiana1.71

Livorno1.15

1X2

49% 27% 24%

AC Reggiana Draw Livorno

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Reggiana 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLLWL

Livorno 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDDLWD

Head-to-head

AC Reggiana 1–2 Livorno (3 last)

Livorno3-1AC Reggiana
AC Reggiana1-2Livorno
Livorno1-2AC Reggiana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Reggiana 1475 · Livorno 1497

	AC Reggiana	Draw	Livorno
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Livorno: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Reggiana	Livorno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +7’	1.83	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Reggiana 1–0–2 Livorno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Italy Serie C Cup	Livorno	3-1 HT 1-1	AC Reggiana
04/06/17 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	AC Reggiana	1-2 HT 0-2	Livorno
31/05/17 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Livorno	1-2 HT 0-2	AC Reggiana

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	25	8	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	26	18	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	18	14	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	15	12	22
6	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	17	14	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	18	17	20
9	Campobasso	13	5	4	4	19	21	19
10	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
11	Perugia	13	5	2	6	18	21	17
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
13	FC Vado	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
14	US Latina Calcio	13	3	6	4	12	14	15
15	Forli	13	3	6	4	17	18	15
16	US Pianese	13	2	7	4	10	13	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	17	22	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	10	22	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	11	27	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Reggiana	Livorno
Sambenedettese	2-0 W	1-2 L
Grosseto	0-2 L	4-4 D
Spezia	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AC Reggiana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Reggiana

WWLLLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	2-3	3-4	2	2	L
30/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
25/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
20/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
10/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	0	7	L
04/10	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
20/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	3-0	4-1	4	5	W

Livorno

LWDWLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
01/11	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
16/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-2	4-4	4	5	D
11/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
26/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
21/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
12/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Reggiana vs Livorno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Reggiana win (49%). Probabilities: AC Reggiana 49%, draw 27%, Livorno 24%.

How many goals are expected in AC Reggiana vs Livorno?

The model expects 2.86 goals (AC Reggiana 1.71 · Livorno 1.15), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Reggiana vs Livorno?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.