Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 14/11, 14:30

Prediction: Vis Pesaro vs US Pianese

Team pages: Vis Pesaro · US Pianese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Vis Pesaro1.12

US Pianese1.31

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Vis Pesaro Draw US Pianese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vis Pesaro 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLDL

US Pianese 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDDDDW

Head-to-head

Vis Pesaro 2–1–1 US Pianese (4 last)

US Pianese1-2Vis Pesaro
Vis Pesaro0-0US Pianese
Vis Pesaro2-0US Pianese
US Pianese2-0Vis Pesaro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vis Pesaro 1428 · US Pianese 1493

	Vis Pesaro	Draw	US Pianese
Our model	31%	30%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Pianese (rating 1428 vs 1493).
H2H favours Vis Pesaro: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vis Pesaro	US Pianese
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +7’	2.90	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vis Pesaro 2–1–1 US Pianese

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Italy Serie C Group B	US Pianese	1-2 HT 1-1	Vis Pesaro
20/09/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Vis Pesaro	0-0 HT 0-0	US Pianese
22/03/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Vis Pesaro	2-0 HT 0-0	US Pianese
10/11/24 Italy Serie C Group B	US Pianese	2-0 HT 1-0	Vis Pesaro

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	25	8	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	26	18	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	18	14	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	15	12	22
6	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	17	14	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	18	17	20
9	Campobasso	13	5	4	4	19	21	19
10	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
11	Perugia	13	5	2	6	18	21	17
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
13	FC Vado	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
14	US Latina Calcio	13	3	6	4	12	14	15
15	Forli	13	3	6	4	17	18	15
16	US Pianese	13	2	7	4	10	13	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	17	22	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	10	22	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	11	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vis Pesaro	US Pianese
ASD Pineto Calcio	0-1 L	0-0 D
Ravenna	0-4 L	2-1 W
US Latina Calcio	0-1 L	1-1 D
Grosseto	2-3 L	0-0 D
Forli	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: US Pianese (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vis Pesaro

LLLWLLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
01/11	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
28/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
24/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	0-4	3	8	L
18/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
10/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
27/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
21/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
16/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	1-4	8	5	L
12/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	0	5	L

US Pianese

DLDLWDDDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	3-2	6	8	W
01/11	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
17/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
10/10	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
26/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-3	6	4	L
21/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
16/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vis Pesaro vs US Pianese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an US Pianese win (40%). Probabilities: Vis Pesaro 31%, draw 29%, US Pianese 40%.

How many goals are expected in Vis Pesaro vs US Pianese?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Vis Pesaro 1.12 · US Pianese 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vis Pesaro vs US Pianese?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.