Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 14/11, 17:30

Prediction: Audace Cerignola vs Inter Milan U23

Team pages: Audace Cerignola · Inter Milan U23

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Audace Cerignola1.72

Inter Milan U231.22

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Audace Cerignola Draw Inter Milan U23

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Audace Cerignola 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Inter Milan U23 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Audace Cerignola 1506 · Inter Milan U23 1513

	Audace Cerignola	Draw	Inter Milan U23
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Audace Cerignola	Inter Milan U23
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.4	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +8’	1.90	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Audace Cerignola	Inter Milan U23
Scafatese	1-4 L	2-1 W
Monopoli	0-2 L	2-4 L
AC Savoia 1908	4-0 W	1-2 L
Crotone	3-2 W	2-0 W
Casertana	0-0 D	2-3 L
Giugliano	4-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Audace Cerignola

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
31/10	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
25/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
18/10	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
10/10	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	3-1	3-2	6	9	W
04/10	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
26/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
19/09	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
15/09	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
11/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	8	6	W

Inter Milan U23

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
01/11	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
27/10	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
24/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-4	3	1	L
13/10	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	4-0	2	4	W
10/10	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
20/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/09	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
12/09	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Audace Cerignola vs Inter Milan U23?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Audace Cerignola win (47%). Probabilities: Audace Cerignola 47%, draw 27%, Inter Milan U23 26%.

How many goals are expected in Audace Cerignola vs Inter Milan U23?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Audace Cerignola 1.72 · Inter Milan U23 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Audace Cerignola vs Inter Milan U23?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.