Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 14/11, 17:30
Prediction: Bari vs Foggia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Bari1.37
Foggia0.82
1X2
Bari
Draw
Foggia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Bari
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Foggia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bari
2–3–1
Foggia
(6 last)
- Foggia2-2Bari
- Bari1-1Foggia
- Bari3-1Foggia
- Bari1-0Foggia
- Foggia1-0Bari
- Foggia1-1Bari
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bari 1528 · Foggia 1475
| Bari | Draw | Foggia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bari (rating 1528 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Bari: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bari | Foggia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bari 2–3–1 Foggia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/22 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Bari |
| 20/10/21 Italy Serie C Group C | Bari | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Foggia |
| 19/05/21 Italy Serie C Play-Offs | Bari | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Foggia |
| 27/02/21 Italy Serie C Group C | Bari | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Foggia |
| 01/11/20 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bari |
| 21/04/18 Italy Serie B | Foggia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Bari |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 18 | 32 |
| 2 | Bari | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Catania | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Scafatese | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 21 |
| 5 | Audace Cerignola | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 6 | Monopoli | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 20 |
| 7 | Inter Milan U23 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 20 |
| 8 | Casertana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 20 |
| 9 | Sorrento Calcio | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 20 |
| 10 | AZ Picerno ASD | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 19 |
| 11 | Cavese | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 16 |
| 12 | Team Altamura | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 16 |
| 13 | Giugliano | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 16 |
| 14 | Salernitana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 15 | Barletta | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 15 |
| 16 | Foggia | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 15 |
| 17 | Casarano | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 15 |
| 18 | AC Savoia 1908 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 12 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 10 |
| 20 | Crotone | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bari | Foggia |
|---|---|---|
| Giugliano | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Cosenza | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Sorrento Calcio | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Potenza | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bari
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/10 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 23/10 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/09 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Foggia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/11 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 25/10 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 15/09 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bari vs Foggia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bari win (49%). Probabilities: Bari 49%, draw 29%, Foggia 22%.
How many goals are expected in Bari vs Foggia?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Bari 1.37 · Foggia 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Foggia?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.