Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 14/11, 14:30

Prediction: Casarano vs AZ Picerno ASD

Team pages: Casarano · AZ Picerno ASD

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Casarano1.59

AZ Picerno ASD1.24

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Casarano Draw AZ Picerno ASD

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Casarano 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDLWDL

AZ Picerno ASD 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Casarano 2–2–2 AZ Picerno ASD (6 last)

Casarano2-2AZ Picerno ASD
AZ Picerno ASD1-2Casarano
AZ Picerno ASD1-0Casarano
AZ Picerno ASD2-2Casarano
Casarano0-1AZ Picerno ASD
AZ Picerno ASD1-2Casarano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casarano 1482 · AZ Picerno ASD 1473

	Casarano	Draw	AZ Picerno ASD
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casarano	AZ Picerno ASD
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +6’	2.05	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casarano 2–2–2 AZ Picerno ASD

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casarano	2-2 HT 0-2	AZ Picerno ASD
13/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C	AZ Picerno ASD	1-2 HT 0-2	Casarano
16/06/21 Italy Serie D Play-Offs	AZ Picerno ASD	1-0	Casarano
16/05/21 Italy Serie D	AZ Picerno ASD	2-2	Casarano
24/01/21 Italy Serie D	Casarano	0-1	AZ Picerno ASD
13/08/19 Europe Friendlies	AZ Picerno ASD	1-2 HT 0-0	Casarano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casarano	AZ Picerno ASD
Cavese	2-5 L	2-1 W
Salernitana	0-0 D	3-0 W
Sorrento Calcio	0-2 L	0-1 L
Audace Cerignola	1-0 W	2-1 W
Barletta	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AZ Picerno ASD (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casarano

WWDLLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
02/11	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
26/10	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-2	2-5	7	6	L
11/10	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
03/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
27/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
15/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	3	4	W

AZ Picerno ASD

LLLWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
26/10	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
18/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/10	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/10	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
26/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-1	3	8	W
19/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
15/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-3	2-4	4	3	L
12/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casarano vs AZ Picerno ASD?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casarano win (44%). Probabilities: Casarano 44%, draw 28%, AZ Picerno ASD 28%.

How many goals are expected in Casarano vs AZ Picerno ASD?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Casarano 1.59 · AZ Picerno ASD 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Casarano vs AZ Picerno ASD?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.