Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 08/11, 08:00
Prediction: North District vs Kowloon City
Team pages: North District · Kowloon City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.59Total
North District2.58
Kowloon City1
1X2
North District
Draw
Kowloon City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
North District
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Kowloon City
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North District
3–2–1
Kowloon City
(6 last)
- North District2-2Kowloon City
- North District2-1Kowloon City
- Kowloon City2-2North District
- Kowloon City3-4North District
- North District3-1Kowloon City
- North District2-3Kowloon City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North District 1561 · Kowloon City 1481
| North District | Draw | Kowloon City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North District (rating 1561 vs 1481).
- H2H favours North District: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North District | Kowloon City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.9 | 1.7 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North District 3–2–1 Kowloon City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/26 Hong Kong Senior Shield | North District | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Kowloon City |
| 17/01/26 Hong Kong Premier League | North District | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Kowloon City |
| 19/10/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Kowloon City | 2-2 HT 1-0 | North District |
| 30/03/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Kowloon City | 3-4 HT 2-2 | North District |
| 12/01/25 Hong Kong Premier League | North District | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Kowloon City |
| 15/09/24 Hong Kong Premier League | North District | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Kowloon City |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | North District | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Tai Po | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Southern District | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | Eastern District | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 7 | Kowloon City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
| 8 | HK Rangers FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 5 |
| 9 | Shatin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
| 10 | Eastern SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Hong Kong FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North District | Kowloon City |
|---|---|---|
| HK Rangers FC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Eastern SC | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Shatin | 5-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Tai Po | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Lee Man FC | 2-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: North District (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North District
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Shatin Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Kowloon City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Shatin Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 23/08 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North District vs Kowloon City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a North District win (71%). Probabilities: North District 71%, draw 16%, Kowloon City 12%.
How many goals are expected in North District vs Kowloon City?
The model expects 3.59 goals (North District 2.58 · Kowloon City 1), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in North District vs Kowloon City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.