Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 08/11, 12:00
Prediction: Eastern District vs Tai Po
Team pages: Eastern District · Tai Po
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
Eastern District1.43
Tai Po2.08
1X2
Eastern District
Draw
Tai Po
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Eastern District
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Tai Po
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eastern District
0–5
Tai Po
(5 last)
- Tai Po2-1Eastern District
- Eastern District1-3Tai Po
- Tai Po1-0Eastern District
- Eastern District0-1Tai Po
- Eastern District1-2Tai Po
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eastern District 1473 · Tai Po 1523
| Eastern District | Draw | Tai Po | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tai Po (rating 1473 vs 1523).
- H2H favours Tai Po: 5-0-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eastern District | Tai Po | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.3 | 2.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern District 0–0–5 Tai Po
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Hong Kong Cup | Tai Po | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Eastern District |
| 11/04/26 Hong Kong Premier League | Eastern District | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Tai Po |
| 22/11/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Tai Po | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Eastern District |
| 28/11/21 Hong Kong 1st Division | Eastern District | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tai Po |
| 28/03/21 Hong Kong 1st Division | Eastern District | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Tai Po |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | North District | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Tai Po | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Southern District | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | Eastern District | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 7 | Kowloon City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
| 8 | HK Rangers FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 5 |
| 9 | Shatin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
| 10 | Eastern SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Hong Kong FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eastern District | Tai Po |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern SC | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| Southern District | 0-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Lee Man FC | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Kitchee | 1-4 L | 3-0 W |
| HK Rangers FC | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Hong Kong FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Kowloon City | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tai Po (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eastern District
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Shatin Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 11/09 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Tai Po
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eastern District vs Tai Po?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tai Po win (52%). Probabilities: Eastern District 26%, draw 23%, Tai Po 52%.
How many goals are expected in Eastern District vs Tai Po?
The model expects 3.51 goals (Eastern District 1.43 · Tai Po 2.08), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Eastern District vs Tai Po?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.