Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 08/11, 09:30
Prediction: Hong Kong FC vs Eastern SC
Team pages: Hong Kong FC · Eastern SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.04Total
Hong Kong FC1.49
Eastern SC2.55
1X2
Hong Kong FC
Draw
Eastern SC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Hong Kong FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Eastern SC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hong Kong FC
0–1–5
Eastern SC
(6 last)
- Eastern SC5-0Hong Kong FC
- Hong Kong FC0-4Eastern SC
- Eastern SC3-0Hong Kong FC
- Eastern SC1-1Hong Kong FC
- Hong Kong FC0-2Eastern SC
- Eastern SC4-0Hong Kong FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hong Kong FC 1454 · Eastern SC 1496
| Hong Kong FC | Draw | Eastern SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 20% | 60% |
| Market | 21% | 20% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern SC (rating 1454 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Eastern SC: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hong Kong FC | Eastern SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.5 | 1.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 2.7 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hong Kong FC 0–1–5 Eastern SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Hong Kong Premier League | Eastern SC | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Hong Kong FC |
| 09/11/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Hong Kong FC | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Eastern SC |
| 27/09/25 Hong Kong Senior Shield | Eastern SC | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Hong Kong FC |
| 29/03/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Eastern SC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Hong Kong FC |
| 12/01/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Hong Kong FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Eastern SC |
| 16/11/24 Hong Kong Sapling Cup | Eastern SC | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Hong Kong FC |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | North District | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Tai Po | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Southern District | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 6 | Eastern District | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 7 | Kowloon City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
| 8 | HK Rangers FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 5 |
| 9 | Shatin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
| 10 | Eastern SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Hong Kong FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hong Kong FC | Eastern SC |
|---|---|---|
| Shatin | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Kitchee | 0-4 L | 4-4 D |
| Tai Po | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Lee Man FC | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Kowloon City | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| HK Rangers FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Eastern District | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Hong Kong FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hong Kong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Shatin Hong Kong Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 12/09 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
Eastern SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 09/10 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Shatin Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
3-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hong Kong FC vs Eastern SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern SC win (60%). Probabilities: Hong Kong FC 21%, draw 20%, Eastern SC 60%.
How many goals are expected in Hong Kong FC vs Eastern SC?
The model expects 4.04 goals (Hong Kong FC 1.49 · Eastern SC 2.55), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hong Kong FC vs Eastern SC?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.