Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 14/11, 14:30

Prediction: Albinoleffe vs Union Brescia

Team pages: Albinoleffe · Union Brescia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Albinoleffe1.09

Union Brescia1.89

1X2

20% 25% 55%

Albinoleffe Draw Union Brescia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Albinoleffe 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLDDWL

Union Brescia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Albinoleffe 1–1 Union Brescia (2 last)

Albinoleffe1-0Union Brescia
Union Brescia2-1Albinoleffe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Albinoleffe 1516 · Union Brescia 1540

	Albinoleffe	Draw	Union Brescia
Our model	21%	24%	55%
Market	20%	26%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Albinoleffe	Union Brescia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.6	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.50

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +3’	4.50	3.50	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Albinoleffe 1–0–1 Union Brescia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Albinoleffe	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Brescia
25/10/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Union Brescia	2-1 HT 1-2	Albinoleffe

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Albinoleffe	Union Brescia
Trento	1-2 L	0-0 D
Cittadella	2-1 W	2-1 W
Alcione Milano	1-1 D	4-0 W
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-2 L	3-2 W
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Brescia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Albinoleffe

DLWDWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	3-2	2	2	W
25/10	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/10	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
03/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
27/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	5-3	1	2	W
17/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
13/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	1	D

Union Brescia

DDWDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
01/11	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
24/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
19/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
09/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
04/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	7	D
27/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	12	2	D
20/09	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-0	8	2	W
17/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
13/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Albinoleffe vs Union Brescia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Brescia win (55%). Probabilities: Albinoleffe 20%, draw 25%, Union Brescia 55%.

How many goals are expected in Albinoleffe vs Union Brescia?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Albinoleffe 1.09 · Union Brescia 1.89), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Albinoleffe vs Union Brescia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.