Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 14/11, 14:30

Prediction: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Alcione Milano

Team pages: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo · Alcione Milano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.54

Alcione Milano1.17

1X2

45% 28% 28%

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Draw Alcione Milano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWDL

Alcione Milano 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDWLWL

Head-to-head

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1–3 Alcione Milano (4 last)

Alcione Milano1-0ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1-3Alcione Milano
Alcione Milano0-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-2Alcione Milano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1519 · Alcione Milano 1503

	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	Draw	Alcione Milano
Our model	45%	28%	28%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alcione Milano: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	Alcione Milano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +2’	2.00	3.25	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1–0–3 Alcione Milano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	1-0 HT 0-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
25/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-3 HT 0-1	Alcione Milano
15/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Alcione Milano	0-1 HT 0-0	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
05/10/24 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	0-2 HT 0-1	Alcione Milano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	Alcione Milano
Union Brescia	2-3 L	0-4 L
Lumezzane	1-1 D	0-1 L
AC Carpi	3-0 W	1-2 L
Albinoleffe	2-1 W	1-1 D
Desenzano	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

LWWWDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
01/11	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
25/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
19/10	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
10/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
03/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
27/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
20/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
13/09	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	8	4	L

Alcione Milano

WDLDDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
31/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	3-1	3-1	4	1	W
24/10	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
18/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-1	2	4	W
11/10	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
27/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	0-4	7	2	L
17/09	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
13/09	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Alcione Milano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Union Arzignanochiampo win (45%). Probabilities: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 45%, draw 28%, Alcione Milano 28%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Alcione Milano?

The model expects 2.72 goals (ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.54 · Alcione Milano 1.17), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Union Arzignanochiampo vs Alcione Milano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.