Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 13/11, 20:30

Prediction: A.C. Ospitaletto vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Team pages: A.C. Ospitaletto · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

A.C. Ospitaletto1.86

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi0.8

1X2

62% 23% 15%

A.C. Ospitaletto Draw AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

A.C. Ospitaletto 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWLLDW

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

DDLDLLLLLL

Head-to-head

A.C. Ospitaletto 2–1 AC Dolomiti Bellunesi (3 last)

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi4-1A.C. Ospitaletto
A.C. Ospitaletto3-1AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi2-3A.C. Ospitaletto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · A.C. Ospitaletto 1507 · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 1405

	A.C. Ospitaletto	Draw	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
Our model	61%	24%	14%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours A.C. Ospitaletto (rating 1507 vs 1405).
H2H favours A.C. Ospitaletto: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	A.C. Ospitaletto	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	0.6 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.90

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +1’	1.45	3.90	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · A.C. Ospitaletto 2–0–1 AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	4-1 HT 1-1	A.C. Ospitaletto
03/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A	A.C. Ospitaletto	3-1 HT 0-0	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
14/05/25 Italy Serie D Play-Offs	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	2-3	A.C. Ospitaletto

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	A.C. Ospitaletto	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi
Desenzano	1-0 W	0-2 L
Trento	0-0 D	0-3 L
Pro Vercelli	1-2 L	2-4 L
Treviso	1-0 W	1-2 L
Renate	1-1 D	0-0 D
Novara	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: A.C. Ospitaletto (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

A.C. Ospitaletto

WDLWDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
31/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
25/10	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
18/10	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	2-3	7	3	L
11/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/10	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
20/09	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
17/09	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
13/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-0	7	3	W

AC Dolomiti Bellunesi

DDLDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	1-3	2-4	5	1	L
01/11	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-4	0	2	L
24/10	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/10	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-3	0	4	L
10/10	Desenzano Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
04/10	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
27/09	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
21/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/09	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
13/09	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in A.C. Ospitaletto vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a A.C. Ospitaletto win (62%). Probabilities: A.C. Ospitaletto 62%, draw 23%, AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 15%.

How many goals are expected in A.C. Ospitaletto vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi?

The model expects 2.66 goals (A.C. Ospitaletto 1.86 · AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in A.C. Ospitaletto vs AC Dolomiti Bellunesi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.