Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 14/11, 14:30

Prediction: Renate vs Desenzano

Team pages: Renate · Desenzano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Renate1.45

Desenzano1.03

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Renate Draw Desenzano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Renate 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLDDLDWW

Desenzano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWLLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renate 1505 · Desenzano 1478

	Renate	Draw	Desenzano
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renate	Desenzano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.6	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +11’	1.95	3.25	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	13	10	1	2	19	6	31
2	Union Brescia	13	8	4	1	26	11	28
3	Trento	13	7	6	0	19	7	27
4	A.C. Ospitaletto	13	6	4	3	19	11	22
5	Treviso	13	6	4	3	14	9	22
6	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	13	6	3	4	19	15	21
7	Lecco	13	5	5	3	22	11	20
8	Alcione Milano	13	4	6	3	21	19	18
9	Albinoleffe	13	4	5	4	20	19	17
10	US Pergolettese	13	4	5	4	14	15	17
11	Lumezzane	13	4	4	5	14	17	16
12	Pro Vercelli	13	4	4	5	15	22	16
13	Desenzano	13	3	4	6	10	15	13
14	Novara	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
15	AC Carpi	13	3	4	6	16	26	13
16	Giana Erminio	13	2	6	5	13	17	12
17	Juventus U23	13	2	5	6	12	23	11
18	Renate	13	2	5	6	17	18	11
19	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	13	2	4	7	10	22	10
20	US Folgore Caratese	13	1	5	7	11	21	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renate	Desenzano
Juventus U23	1-2 L	0-0 D
Giana Erminio	2-2 D	1-2 L
A.C. Ospitaletto	1-1 D	0-1 L
Treviso	0-1 L	0-0 D
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	1-2 L	2-1 W
AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Desenzano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Renate

DDLLDDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
01/11	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	5-0	3	6	W
25/10	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
19/10	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
11/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
03/10	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
27/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
20/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
17/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
13/09	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-2	5	7	D

Desenzano

WLDDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
02/11	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
25/10	Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
18/10	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	0-3	1-4	6	4	L
10/10	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
03/10	US Folgore Caratese Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
26/09	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
21/09	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
17/09	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
13/09	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renate vs Desenzano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Renate win (46%). Probabilities: Renate 46%, draw 28%, Desenzano 26%.

How many goals are expected in Renate vs Desenzano?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Renate 1.45 · Desenzano 1.03), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Renate vs Desenzano?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.