Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 31/07, 17:00

Prediction: Gazalkent vs FC Aral Nukus

Team pages: Gazalkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Gazalkent1.17

FC Aral Nukus1.6

1X2

27% 26% 47%

Gazalkent Draw FC Aral Nukus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gazalkent 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Aral Nukus 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gazalkent 1542 · FC Aral Nukus 1530

	Gazalkent	Draw	FC Aral Nukus
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gazalkent	FC Aral Nukus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:02 +1’	3.25	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	11	9	2	0	27	8	29
2	Shurtan	11	7	2	2	16	11	23
3	FC Lochin	11	6	3	2	20	9	21
4	Kattaqorgon	11	6	3	2	13	7	21
5	Gazalkent	11	5	3	3	17	14	18
6	Metallurg Bekabad	11	5	3	3	25	11	18
7	Fardu Ferghana	11	4	4	3	15	20	16
8	Olympic Mobiuz	11	4	3	4	21	13	15
9	FC Yaypan Fergana	11	4	1	6	14	22	13
10	Respublika FA	11	3	3	5	13	12	12
11	Jayxun	11	3	2	6	9	17	11
12	BuxDu	11	3	1	7	9	21	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	11	1	1	9	6	25	4
14	PFC Terdu	11	1	1	9	8	23	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gazalkent	FC Aral Nukus
Jayxun	0-0 D	2-1 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Aral Nukus (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gazalkent

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	3-2	8	6	W
10/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	0	3	W
03/06	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
20/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-5	3	7	L
15/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
06/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
30/04	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-1	10	8	W
26/04	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

FC Aral Nukus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/12	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
03/11	FK Olympic Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
27/10	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
20/10	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-3	6	4	L
05/10	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
26/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
14/09	FK Olympic Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
26/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
19/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
12/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gazalkent vs FC Aral Nukus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Aral Nukus win (47%). Probabilities: Gazalkent 27%, draw 26%, FC Aral Nukus 47%.

How many goals are expected in Gazalkent vs FC Aral Nukus?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Gazalkent 1.17 · FC Aral Nukus 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gazalkent vs FC Aral Nukus?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.