Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: AD Camacha vs Cinfaes

Team pages: AD Camacha · Cinfaes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

AD Camacha1.65

Cinfaes0.91

1X2

54% 27% 20%

AD Camacha Draw Cinfaes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Camacha 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDWWD

Cinfaes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDDLL

Head-to-head

AD Camacha 1–1–2 Cinfaes (4 last)

Cinfaes1-1AD Camacha
AD Camacha1-3Cinfaes
AD Camacha2-0Cinfaes
Cinfaes2-1AD Camacha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Camacha 1536 · Cinfaes 1485

	AD Camacha	Draw	Cinfaes
Our model	54%	27%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Camacha (rating 1536 vs 1485).
H2H favours Cinfaes: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Camacha	Cinfaes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	3.75 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:01 +32’	1.83	3.25	3.75
17:36 +5’	1.67▼	3.40▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Camacha 1–1–2 Cinfaes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	1-1 HT 1-1	AD Camacha
10/11/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	1-3 HT 1-0	Cinfaes
24/03/18 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	AD Camacha	2-0 HT 1-0	Cinfaes
26/11/17 Portugal Campeonato Nacional	Cinfaes	2-1	AD Camacha

Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Campeonato de Portugal 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ovarense	7	6	1	0	14	3	19
2	AD Machico	7	4	3	0	10	2	15
3	AD Camacha	7	4	3	0	11	5	15
4	Florgrade FC	7	3	2	2	7	7	11
5	AD Sanjoanense	7	3	2	2	9	8	11
6	AD Castro Daire	7	2	4	1	8	6	10
7	Salgueiros	7	1	5	1	5	6	8
8	Uniao de Lamas	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
9	Cinfaes	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
10	Beira Mar	7	0	6	1	8	10	6
11	Estrela da Calheta FC	7	1	3	3	7	12	6
12	FC Alpendorada	7	1	2	4	7	11	5
13	Guarda Desportiva	7	1	1	5	3	7	4
14	UD Sousense	7	0	3	4	6	13	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Camacha	Cinfaes
Guarda Desportiva	2-2 D	0-1 L
Florgrade FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
FC Alpendorada	2-1 W	0-0 D
Salgueiros	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AD Camacha (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Camacha

LWLDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AD Machico Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
25/10	AD Sanjoanense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/10	Uniao de Lamas Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	1	7	W
13/09	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	2-2	7	3	D
06/09	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
23/08	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
16/08	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	CD Celoricense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
12/04	Vilaverdense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
29/03	Braganca Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-2	1-3	5	3	L

Cinfaes

WWWWDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Guarda Desportiva Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-1	15	6	L
25/10	Florgrade FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
11/10	FC Alpendorada Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
27/09	Estrela da Calheta FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	8	D
13/09	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	Beira Mar Portugal Campeonato Nacional	2-2	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	UD Sousense Portugal Campeonato Nacional	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Aparecida FC Portugal Campeonato Nacional	3-0	5-2	3	2	W
12/04	GD Resende Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
04/04	Salgueiros Portugal Campeonato Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Camacha vs Cinfaes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Camacha win (54%). Probabilities: AD Camacha 54%, draw 27%, Cinfaes 20%.

How many goals are expected in AD Camacha vs Cinfaes?

The model expects 2.56 goals (AD Camacha 1.65 · Cinfaes 0.91), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Camacha vs Cinfaes?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.