Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: Nova Cidade vs Carapebus/Campos

Team pages: Nova Cidade · Carapebus/Campos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Nova Cidade1.66

Carapebus/Campos0.97

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Nova Cidade Draw Carapebus/Campos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Nova Cidade 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Carapebus/Campos 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nova Cidade 1–1–0 Carapebus/Campos (2 last)

Carapebus/Campos0-2Nova Cidade
Nova Cidade0-0Carapebus/Campos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nova Cidade 1443 · Carapebus/Campos 1430

	Nova Cidade	Draw	Carapebus/Campos
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nova Cidade	Carapebus/Campos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	1.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	6.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +27’	1.70	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nova Cidade 1–1–0 Carapebus/Campos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Carapebus/Campos	0-2	Nova Cidade
30/10/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Nova Cidade	0-0 HT 0-0	Carapebus/Campos

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Goytacaz	10	6	3	1	13	6	21
2	Serrano	10	6	3	1	14	8	21
3	Duque de Caxias FC	10	6	1	3	16	8	19
4	Niteroiense	10	6	1	3	12	9	19
5	Petropolis	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
7	Campo Grande AC	10	3	3	4	8	13	12
8	Macae Esporte FC	10	3	2	5	10	11	11
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	10	2	4	4	6	8	10
10	Nova Cidade	10	1	3	6	8	13	6
11	Audax Rio	10	1	2	7	6	14	5
12	Carapebus/Campos	10	1	2	7	9	21	5

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nova Cidade	Carapebus/Campos
Petropolis	0-1 L	2-2 D
Serrano	0-1 L	0-3 L
Macae Esporte FC	1-2 L	3-4 L
Artsul Futebol Clube	1-1 D	0-0 D
Campo Grande AC	3-0 W	0-1 L
Audax Rio	0-0 D	2-1 W
Goytacaz	1-2 L	0-2 L
Niteroiense	0-1 L	1-3 L
Sao Cristovao RJ	2-2 D	0-1 L
Duque de Caxias FC	0-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Nova Cidade (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nova Cidade

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
24/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
21/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
16/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/10	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	3-0	12	5	W
03/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/09	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
19/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
12/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	2-2	8	9	D
05/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-3	8	9	L

Carapebus/Campos

LLDLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
24/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-2	2-2	6	3	D
21/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	0-2	7	7	L
17/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	0-3	0	7	L
10/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
03/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	3-4	6	12	L
25/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
19/09	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
11/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
05/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	7	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nova Cidade vs Carapebus/Campos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nova Cidade win (53%). Probabilities: Nova Cidade 53%, draw 26%, Carapebus/Campos 21%.

How many goals are expected in Nova Cidade vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Nova Cidade 1.66 · Carapebus/Campos 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nova Cidade vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.