Football · Hungary NBI Women · 15/11, 13:30

Prediction: Astra HFC (W) vs MTK Hungaria (W)

Team pages: Astra HFC (W) · MTK Hungaria (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Astra HFC (W)0.46

MTK Hungaria (W)2.2

1X2

7% 15% 78%

Astra HFC (W) Draw MTK Hungaria (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Astra HFC (W) 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLL

MTK Hungaria (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Astra HFC (W) 0–1–5 MTK Hungaria (W) (6 last)

MTK Hungaria (W)0-0Astra HFC (W)
MTK Hungaria (W)4-0Astra HFC (W)
Astra HFC (W)0-3MTK Hungaria (W)
Astra HFC (W)1-5MTK Hungaria (W)
MTK Hungaria (W)1-0Astra HFC (W)
Astra HFC (W)1-2MTK Hungaria (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Astra HFC (W) 1432 · MTK Hungaria (W) 1540

	Astra HFC (W)	Draw	MTK Hungaria (W)
Our model	6%	18%	77%
Market	7%	14%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MTK Hungaria (W) (rating 1432 vs 1540).
H2H favours MTK Hungaria (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Astra HFC (W)	MTK Hungaria (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.3	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

112.00

X6.50

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.80

2 (-2.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 15.00▲	Bet365 15.00
X	6.50 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25
2	1.14 → 1.17▲	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:13 +5’	12.00	6.50	1.14
14:09 +8’	12.00	6.00▼	1.18▲
03:48 +16’	15.00▲	6.25▲	1.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +5’	13.32	7.27	1.11
03:01 +4’	12.69▼	6.59▼	1.13▲
04:02 +3’	12.36▼	6.22▼	1.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Astra HFC (W) 0–1–5 MTK Hungaria (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Hungary NBI Women	MTK Hungaria (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Astra HFC (W)
03/05/25 Hungary NBI Women	MTK Hungaria (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Astra HFC (W)
10/11/24 Hungary NBI Women	Astra HFC (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	MTK Hungaria (W)
28/04/24 Hungary NBI Women	Astra HFC (W)	1-5 HT 1-2	MTK Hungaria (W)
04/11/23 Hungary NBI Women	MTK Hungaria (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Astra HFC (W)
12/03/23 Hungary NBI Women	Astra HFC (W)	1-2 HT 1-2	MTK Hungaria (W)

Standings · Hungary NBI Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferencvarosi TC (W)	14	11	2	1	32	8	35
2	Gyor Eto FC (W)	14	11	1	2	50	8	34
3	Ujpest (W)	15	11	1	3	32	8	34
4	MTK Hungaria (W)	14	9	3	2	30	6	30
5	Puskas FC (W)	15	9	2	4	63	17	29
6	Kispest Honved (W)	15	9	2	4	37	11	29
7	Szent Mihaly SE (W)	15	6	1	8	20	24	19
8	Pecsi MFC (W)	15	5	3	7	17	27	18
9	Fehervar FC (W)	15	4	0	11	16	73	12
10	Astra HFC (W)	14	2	2	10	9	21	8
11	Diosgyori VTK (W)	15	1	1	13	15	70	4
12	Szekszardi (W)	15	1	0	14	6	54	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Astra HFC (W)	MTK Hungaria (W)
Ferencvarosi TC (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Szent Mihaly SE (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Ujpest (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Fehervar FC (W)	2-1 W	9-0 W
Gyor Eto FC (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Kispest Honved (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
Pecsi MFC (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Puskas FC (W)	1-2 L	2-3 L
Diosgyori VTK (W)	3-2 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: MTK Hungaria (W) (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Astra HFC (W)

WLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ferencvarosi TC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
31/10	Szent Mihaly SE (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
25/10	Ujpest (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-1	0	4	L
18/10	Fehervar FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	2-0	2-1	3	0	W
26/09	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
20/09	Kispest Honved (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	1-3	2	2	L
16/09	Pecsi MFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
13/09	Puskas FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
05/09	Szekszardi (W) Hungary NBI Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	Diosgyori VTK (W) Hungary NBI Women	2-1	3-2	4	5	W

MTK Hungaria (W)

DDWWLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Szent Mihaly SE (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/10	Fehervar FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	3-0	9-0	8	0	W
25/10	Kispest Honved (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
17/10	Puskas FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
26/09	Diosgyori VTK (W) Hungary NBI Women	4-1	4-1	14	2	W
19/09	Ferencvarosi TC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
16/09	Ujpest (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/09	Gyor Eto FC (W) Hungary NBI Women	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Pecsi MFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
26/08	Astra HFC (W) Hungary NBI Women	0-0	0-0	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Astra HFC (W) vs MTK Hungaria (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MTK Hungaria (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Astra HFC (W) 7%, draw 15%, MTK Hungaria (W) 78%.

How many goals are expected in Astra HFC (W) vs MTK Hungaria (W)?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Astra HFC (W) 0.46 · MTK Hungaria (W) 2.2), with a 61% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Astra HFC (W) vs MTK Hungaria (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.