Football · Australia Tasmania Championship · 31/07, 12:15

Prediction: South Hobart FC 2 vs Taroona

Team pages: Taroona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

South Hobart FC 22.91

Taroona1.63

1X2

63% 18% 19%

South Hobart FC 2 Draw Taroona

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

South Hobart FC 2 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLWWW

Taroona 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWDDLW

Head-to-head

South Hobart FC 2 4–2 Taroona (6 last)

Taroona2-3South Hobart FC 2
Taroona0-1South Hobart FC 2
South Hobart FC 21-2Taroona
South Hobart FC 21-2Taroona
South Hobart FC 23-1Taroona
Taroona2-4South Hobart FC 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Hobart FC 2 1588 · Taroona 1517

	South Hobart FC 2	Draw	Taroona
Our model	63%	18%	19%
Market	63%	18%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Hobart FC 2 (rating 1588 vs 1517).
H2H favours South Hobart FC 2: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Hobart FC 2	Taroona
Goals for / against (FT)	4.3 / 1.2	2.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.5	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7.6	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	5.50 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	5.50 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:58 +9’	1.33	5.50	5.50
12:01 +6’	1.44▲	5.00▼	4.50▼
13:06 +2’	1.42▼	5.00	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Hobart FC 2 4–0–2 Taroona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia Tasmania Championship	Taroona	2-3 HT 0-2	South Hobart FC 2
12/07/25 Australia Tasmania Championship	Taroona	0-1 HT 0-1	South Hobart FC 2
26/04/25 Australia Tasmania Championship	South Hobart FC 2	1-2 HT 1-0	Taroona
12/05/24 Australia Tasmania Championship	South Hobart FC 2	1-2 HT 0-1	Taroona
16/07/23 Australia Tasmania Championship	South Hobart FC 2	3-1 HT 1-1	Taroona
01/04/23 Australia Tasmania Championship	Taroona	2-4 HT 1-0	South Hobart FC 2

Standings · Australia Tasmania Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Hobart FC 2	13	9	1	3	56	20	28
2	Hobart City FC	14	8	4	2	39	24	28
3	New Town Eagles	14	7	5	2	48	17	26
4	Olympia FC Warriors	13	8	1	4	34	22	25
5	Clarence Zebras Reserves	14	7	1	6	37	34	22
6	Taroona	13	6	3	4	39	22	21
7	Hobart United	13	2	2	9	21	62	8
8	University of Tasmania	13	2	1	10	24	53	7
9	Glenorchy Knights Reserves	13	1	2	10	12	56	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Hobart FC 2	Taroona
University of Tasmania	5-0 W	10-0 W
New Town Eagles	3-0 W	1-0 W
Glenorchy Knights Reserves	6-0 W	2-2 D
Olympia FC Warriors	1-2 L	3-2 W
Clarence Zebras Reserves	3-1 W	1-3 L
Hobart United	13-0 W	1-1 D
Hobart City FC	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: South Hobart FC 2 (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Hobart FC 2

DWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
11/07	New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/06	Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship	2-0	6-0	13	0	W
19/06	Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
13/06	Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
31/05	Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship	6-0	13-0	–	–	W
23/05	Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
09/05	Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship	2-0	3-2	7	1	W
02/05	University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship	3-1	6-3	–	–	W
19/04	New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship	1-1	1-1	8	2	D

Taroona

WLLWDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
11/07	Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship	1-1	1-3	12	0	L
04/07	Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
20/06	Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship	0-0	2-2	2	3	D
13/06	New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/05	Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship	1-2	2-2	9	4	D
23/05	University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship	6-0	10-0	6	2	W
09/05	South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship	0-2	2-3	6	1	L
01/05	Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
18/04	Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship	1-1	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Hobart FC 2 vs Taroona?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Hobart FC 2 win (63%). Probabilities: South Hobart FC 2 63%, draw 18%, Taroona 19%.

How many goals are expected in South Hobart FC 2 vs Taroona?

The model expects 4.53 goals (South Hobart FC 2 2.91 · Taroona 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in South Hobart FC 2 vs Taroona?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.