Prediction: Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle
Team pages: Lota Schwager · Provincial Ovalle
| Lota Schwager | Draw | Provincial Ovalle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lota Schwager (rating 1517 vs 1469).
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lota Schwager | Provincial Ovalle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5.4 | 2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.2 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0.5 |
Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Rengo Unido | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 2 | Santiago Morning | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Lota Schwager | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | General Velásquez | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Provincial Ovalle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 7 | AC Colina | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lota Schwager | Provincial Ovalle |
|---|---|---|
| AC Colina | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Santiago Morning | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| General Velásquez | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lota Schwager
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 05/07 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 28/06 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 14/06 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
Provincial Ovalle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/06 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/06 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lota Schwager win (53%). Probabilities: Lota Schwager 53%, draw 27%, Provincial Ovalle 20%.
How many goals are expected in Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Lota Schwager 1.55 · Provincial Ovalle 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.